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Week 16 NFL DFS Picks: Best value players, sleepers for DraftKings, FanDuel daily fantasy football lineups
As the 2020 NFL regular season roars towards the finish line, so, too, do the majority of fantasy football redraft leagues. If you made the championship round, congratulations! If not, there’s always next year, and for now, there’s always DFS sites like DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. These sites allow you to construct a brand-new roster each time, acquiring players at different salaries and keeping your team under a hard cap. In order to achieve DFS success, you must pinpoint under-the-radar value plays and sleepers so you can afford weekly studs in other roster slots. That’s where RotoQL comes in -- we provide detailed rankings of each NFL players’ DFS prices, values, stat projections, floors, and ceilings. I then compile a detailed list of our favorite under-the-radar value players, and we provide it to you free of charge via this weekly column. If you checked in last week, you would have benefited greatly from our advice to make the following DFS roster picks (all Week 15 prices and fantasy points via DraftKings): QB Jalen Hurts ($5,900): 40.8 fantasy pointsQB Philip Rivers ($5,900): 17RB D’Andre Swift ($6,400): 23.2RB JKDobbins ($5,900): 15.1WR Brandon Aiyuk ($6,300): 22.3WR: T.Y. Hilton ($5,500): 11.1Arizona D/ST ($2,900): 10These players (and Arizona’s D) all vastly outperformed their price tiers, with some even leading their positions for the week. By finding such great values at modest costs, DFS managers afforded themselves studs like Derrick Henry and Calvin Ridley in other roster spots.MORE WEEK 16 DFS: Best stacks|Lineup BuilderYou can read Week 16 previews and fantasy prediction articles 24/7onBetQL, find out which side the pros are betting on their NFL expert picks dashboard, follow all the NFL public betting data, and build DraftKings lineupson RotoQL.Let's break down ourtop Week 16 DFS value plays, and you can get an idea of why 100,000DFSplayers trustRotoQLto build lineups. We constantly monitor pricingand provide the most up-to-date insight and analysis to maximize your lineup success.Optimize, find value plays, and increase your chances of cashing today!WEEK 16 DFS TOURNAMENT LINEUPS: DraftKings | FanDuelNFL DFS Picks Week 16: QB sleepers, valuesJalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (DK: $7,000 | FD: $8,200)Coach Doug Pederson probably secretly wishes he had turned to Hurts earlier this season, as the rookie phenom has been explosive in his two starts for Philly. He posted 23.3 fantasy points in Week 14 against the Saintsand a whopping 40.8 in Arizona last week. Now he gets a dome game in Dallasagainst one of the more disappointing defenses of 2020. RotoQL projects Hurts to score 21.8 fantasy points against the Cowboys this weekendwith a40.8-pointceiling. Fire the rookie up with confidence.Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns at New York Jets (DK: $6,100 | FD: $7,600)Mayfield has morphed into a sensational playmaker this season. Six days after nearly leading the Browns over the Ravens on Monday Night Football with 366 total yards and three scores, the third-year QB went 27-of-32 for 297 yards and two TDs against a good Giants defense in a 20-6 spanking. After Pittsburgh choked against the Bengals on Monday, the AFC North is very much in play for the Browns. Expect a huge statistical game for Mayfield against the lowly Jets, who rank 30th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacksand have allowed three passing TDs per game over the past three weeks.Mitchell Trubisky, Chicago Bears at Jacksonville Jaguars (DK: $5,700 | FD: $7,200)Clearly the Bears should have kept Trubisky under center the whole season, as he’s now 5-2 as a starter in 2020. He may not be the future in Chicago but he’s definitely the present, and there’s no better gift to a QB than a sunny late-December meeting with the Jaguars. Jacksonville serves up the second-most fantasy points to QBsand has surrendered five passing TDs in the past two games.Stocking Stuffer SpecialAndy Dalton, Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles (DK: $5,500 | FD: $6,900)Dalton finally looks comfortable under center in Dallas, and he’s quietly averaged about 17 fantasy points over his past five games. Kyler Murray just put up 406 passing yards and three TDs against Philly’s secondary, so we like Red Rifle in this crucial home game against the Cowboys’ division rivals.Saturday Slate Standouts:Kyler Murray, Cardinals; Tom Brady, Buccaneers; Derek Carr, RaidersWEEK 16 DFS CASH LINEUPS: DraftKings |FanDuelWeek 16 DraftKings, FanDuel Picks: RB sleepers, valuesDavid Johnson, Houston Texans vs. Cincinnati Bengals (DK: $6,100 | FD: $6,700)After missing a handful of contests to a concussion and COVID-19 (not the kind of alliteration you want), DJ exploded for 133 all-purpose yards in Indianapolis last weekend. He caught all 11 of his targets, serving as Deshaun Watson’s security blanket against a tough Colts front seven. The Bengals looked pretty darn good against the Steelers last weekend, but they still allow 128.6 rushing yards per game (seventh worst in the NFL). Johnson should grab at least 60 yards on the groundand maybe another 50 through the air. RotoQL projects him to score 15.8 fantasy points this weekend, which would equal enormous value at these prices.JKDobbins, Baltimore Ravens vs. New York Giants (DK: $6,200 | FD: $6,300)Dobbins has been one of the best offensive rookies in the second half of the 2020 season, and he’s averaged 14 fantasy points overthe past four weeks. The Giants have a good secondary, but their front seven has been vulnerable to good running games. The Ravens are one of the best rushing teams in the NFL, and Dobbins has emerged as their best back. Expect another double-digit points performance from the talented rookie this weekend.Le'Veon Bell, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Atlanta Falcons (DK: $5,800 | FD: $6,400)After standout rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire suffered a high-ankle sprain and hip strain in a gruesome-looking play Sunday, Bell is now the true bell-cow in KC. The veteran has done it all for the Chiefs lately, and he logged 76 scrimmage yards and a score in their big 32-29 win over the Saints. The Falcons D has been better as of late, but it’s still susceptible to big-play guys in high-flying offenses. Leonard Fournette just scored two TDs in Atlanta last week, and it’s a good bet that Bell can fall in the end zone at least once this week.Stocking Stuffer SpecialChase Edmonds, Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers (DK: $4,600 | FD: $6,400)I’ve been one of the loudest critics of Kenyan Drake this season, and I maintain that Edmonds is a better fantasy player (and RB in general) than Drake. Edmonds touched the ball 14 times in Arizona’s big win over Philly last week, netting 66 yards and a touchdown (15.6 PPR points). Meanwhile, Drake managed just 40 yards on 12 touchesand appeared banged up throughout the game. RotoQL projects Edmonds at 10 PPR points with a 38-point ceiling on Saturday.Saturday Slate Standouts:D’Andre Swift, Lions; Salvon Ahmed, DolphinsWEEK 16 PPR RANKINGS:Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | KickerFanDuel, DraftKings Picks Week 16: WR sleepers, valuesBrandin Cooks, Houston Texans vs. Cincinnati Bengals (DK: $6,200 | FD: $7,000)Cooks missed one game after suffering a concussion against Indy in Week 13, but he returned to face the same Colts last weekend. He recorded six receptions on seven targets for 59 yards inhis fourth consecutive game with at least 11.9 PPR points. Cincinnatihas a much weaker secondary than Indy, so expect the volume to translate into more points production for Cooks this weekend. He’s Deshaun Watson’s A-1 ever since Will Fuller’s suspension, and he’s well worth these price tags.Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans (DK: $4,700 | FD: $5,900)Bengals veteran wideout Tyler Boyd (concussion) got banged up in the upset win over the Steelers last week, so the rookie could be in for a huge volume boost from third-string QB Ryan Finley. The Texans’ pass defense has been abysmal this season, ranking 23rd in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. He's a volatile play, but Higgins could come with a huge reward at a low cost.Sammy Watkins, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Atlanta Falcons (DK: 5,000 | FD: $5,400)Watkins has had a tough 2020, but Patrick Mahomes has increasingly involved the veteran wideout in the past few weeks. He has 22 targets since returning from injury in Week 12, and he’s caught four passes in three of those four games. He logged 60 receiving yards against a dynamic Saints secondary last week, so 80 yards and a score seem attainable at home against the last-ranked Falcons passing defense.Stocking Stuffer SpecialAllen Lazard, Green Bay Packers vs. Tennessee Titans (DK: $4,200 | FD: $5,700)Lazard has been heating up as of late, making up for the time he lost to core muscle surgery. Only two teams give up more fantasy points to wide receivers than Tennessee, so some of the volume should go his way this weekend.Saturday Slate Standouts:Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers; Mike Evans, Buccaneers; Marvin Jones, LionsWEEK 16 STANDARD RANKINGS:Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | KickerWeek 16 NFL DFS Picks: TE sleepers, valuesMark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens vs. New York Giants (DK: $5,700 | FD: $7,000)The high-flying Ravens are back just in time for a playoff push, and Andrews has been one of the main catalysts. The 6-5, 256-pound veteran has averaged 17 fantasy points over his past three contests, and he remains one of the more trustworthy targets in the NFL on third down and in the red zone. Unlike the majority of tight ends, Andrews has a massive ceiling and a decent floor. The Giants have allowed tight ends to find paydirt in each of their past two games, and Andrews has caught nine-of-13 red-zone targets this season (with two TDs in the past three games), so getting the Pro Bowler at $5,700 is an early Christmas gift.Logan Thomas, Washington Football Team vs. Carolina Panthers (DK: $4,900 | FD: $6,000)A perfect storm of factors went into this recommendation. The veteran journeyman has enjoyed a breakout season, with 62 receptions and five touchdowns. He’s coming off his best volume game of the season, having caught 13-of-15 targets for 101 yards against the Seahawks. And this week he lines up against the Panthers defense, one of the worst units in the league and the eighth-most generous fantasy D to tight ends. Thomas has caught 32 of his 35 targets over the past four games, so you might want to hop aboard Thomas the Tank before DFS sites start to catch on.Stocking Stuffer Special:Austin Hooper, Cleveland Browns at New York Jets (DK: $3,500 | FD: $5,100)Hooper came back last week from a one-game absence due to a neck injury, and he posted 15.1 fantasy points in the Browns’ win over the Giants. Now he gets to face off with the other Big Apple team, the lowly Jets, who serve as the most generous defense to tight ends. It’s been a tough year for Hooper -- emergency appendectomy, neck ailments, etc. -- but this game should prove to be a much-needed stat-padder for the two-time Pro Bowler.Saturday Slate Standouts:Darren Waller, Raiders; Rob Gronkowski, Buccaneers; Jordan Reed, 49ersBetQL, RotoQL’s sister product, simplifies the research process for sports bettors by equipping them with real-time line movements, value bets of the day and meaningful team trends.Check it out here!Week 16 NFL DFS values: D/ST sleepersWashington Football Team vs. Carolina Panthers (DK: $3,000 | FD: $4,800) The team with no name sure has one hell of a defense. WFT has emerged as one of the more dominant squads in football, and it’s coming off a tough 20-15 loss to the Seahawks. Newsflash: Carolina sans-Christian McCaffrey comes nowhere near the offensive ability of Seattle. I think the Panthers struggle in D.C. this weekend, and Washington logs at least 11 fantasy points for the fifth time this season.Saturday Slate Standouts:Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions; Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers
Wild Card NFL DFS Picks: Best value players, sleepers for DraftKings, FanDuel daily fantasy football lineups
The 2020 NFL regular season has come to a close, and now things really start to get fun in DFS. With every game a nationally televised, must-win affair, these are the times when fantasy football studs truly distinguish themselves on the field, and as always, it’s imperative to pinpoint the sleepers and under-the-radar value plays on DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. By attaining valuable production at discount prices at one position, managers afford themselves proven weekly commodities in other roster spots. My job, all 17 regular-season weeks and now into the postseason, is to scan the vast projections of RotoQL and pick my favorite sleepers and value picks. If you checked this column out last week, you would have benefited from our advice to plug in the following players (all Week 17 prices and fantasy points production via DraftKings): QB Kirk Cousins, MIN ($7,700): 40.3 fantasy pointsQB Derek Carr, LV ($5,700): 24.9QB Drew Brees, NO ($5,900): 20.04RB Melvin Gordon, DEN ($5,700): 21.0RB D'Andre Swift, DET ($6,300): 16.0RB Nyheim Hines, IND ($4,900): 12.7WR Marvin Jones Jr., DET ($5,100): 38.0WR Russell Gage, ATL ($5,100): 25.2WR Keke Coutee, HOU ($5,600): 15.0WR T.Y. Hilton, IND ($5,800): 13.7These players all vastly outperformed their price tiers, with some even leading their positions for the week. By finding such great values at modest costs, DFS managers afforded themselves studs like Tom Brady, A.J. Brown, and Jonathan Taylor in other roster spots.MORE WILD CARDDFS: Lineup BuilderYou can read wild-card weekendpreviews and fantasy prediction articles 24/7onBetQL, find out which side the pros are betting on their NFL expert picks dashboard, follow all the NFL public betting data, and build DraftKings lineupson RotoQL.Let's break down ourtop Week 17 DFS value plays, and you can get an idea of why 100,000DFSplayers trustRotoQLto build lineups. We constantly monitor pricingand provide the most up-to-date insight and analysis to maximize your lineup success.Optimize, find value plays, and increase your chances of cashing today!Wild Card NFL DFS Picks: QB sleepers, valuesRyan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans vs. Baltimore Ravens (DK: $6,600 | FD: $8,200)It sure feels tempting to go with the quarterback on the other side of this matchupgiven how Lamar Jackson has seemingly returned to his superstar form, but the glaring price differential between the 2019 Comeback Player of the Year and the '19 MVP probably won't be coupled with a substantial disparity in production. Tannehill put up 28.4 fantasy points against Houston in Week 17, and he almost hit Black Jack when these teams met in Baltimore back in Week 11. He's the safest bet with the highest ceiling in this price range.Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints vs. Chicago Bears (DK: $5,700 | FD: $7,800)It's safe to say Brees has fully recovered from his punctured lung and 11 broken ribsjust in time for a tough opening-round matchup with a solid Bears D. The 42-year-old future Hall-of-Fame QB has eclipsed 20 fantasy points in two of the past three weeks, and he scored 19.6 against the Bears in Chicago on Nov. 1. The upside may be limited with Brees against Khalil Mack and company, but you won't find a better floor for under $6K DK/$8K FD.Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns (DK: $6,100 | FD: $7,500)Remember when the Steelers were 11-0? After a nightmarish second half of the regular season, you can acquire most of Pittsburgh's skill-position players at discount rates. With Big Ben's penchant for turning the heat up in the playoffsand the fact that Cleveland ranks just 25th in fantasy points allowed toQBs, RotoQL's model really likes the the veteran signal-caller. Pittsburgh certainly won't be running its way to the second round.Wild Card DraftKings, FanDuel Picks: RB sleepers, valuesJKDobbins, Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans (DK: $6,600 | FD: $6,800)From Week 11 on, Dobbins has been one of the better offensive talents, never mind rookies, in the NFL. He averaged 13.6 PPR points in Baltimore's five games between Nov. 22 and Dec. 27, then exploded for 28 points in the Ravens' thrashing of the Bengals last week. Tennessee ranks 26th against RBs in fantasy, so it's surprising to see the Ohio State product priced under $7,000.Jonathan Taylor (DK: $7,900 | FD: $8,800) and Nyheim Hines (DK: $4,700 | FD: $5,600), Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo BillsObviously, the top Colts back you want this week will be Taylor, who ran roughshod over the Jaguars last week with 253 yards and two scores. Taylor finished his debut regular season with 1,169 rushing yards and 12 total TDs (not to mention 36 catches on 39 targets for 299 yards). Grabbing Hines in one RB spot might afford you JT in the other, forming an Indy stack against a vulnerable Bills run defense. Buffalo ranks 22nd against RBs in fantasyand surrendered 140 ground yards in two of its past three games. Hines has been the security blanket for veteran Colts QB Philip Rivers, and there should be plenty of dump-offs and screens in Buffalo on Saturday. There's no shame in picking two members of the same backfield.Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (DK: $6,700 | FD: $7,700)Since Chubb returned from injury in Week 10, he has been one of the most impactful running backs in football. He has averaged 17.6 PPR points per game in that spanand put up 16.8 last week against these very Steelers. The second-year back seems matchup-proof at this point, and he's well worth these prices.Wild Card FanDuel, DraftKings Picks: WR sleepers, valuesMarquise Brown, Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans (DK: $5,400 | FD: $6,300)‘Hollywood’ Brown had a brutal first half of the season, directly correlated with Lamar Jackson’s early struggles in his MVP encore, but the second-year wideout has finished strong, scoring six receiving touchdowns in Baltimore’s final six games. He averaged 15.9 PPR points in that spanand will likely continue his torrid pace against a lowly Titans secondary that gave up the second-most fantasy points to receivers this season. RotoQL projects Brown to score 12.5 pointsbut lists his ceiling at 33.7. Go Hollywood on your opponents and grab the dazzling speedster.Chase Claypool, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns (DK: $5,200 | FD: $6,100)The antithesis of Brown, Claypool had an incredible first half but turned into a Lost Boy after Week 12. Big Ben backup Mason Rudolph must have traveled to Neverland to retrieve the rookie receiverbecause they connected on five catches for 101 yards and a touchdown against the Browns in Week 17. The Steelers get to play Cleveland again this week, but this time Roethlisberger will be back under center. Claypool caught all four of his targets when he and the veteran QB first played the Browns this season back in Week 6, and he finished with 81 total yards and a score. There’s a very good chance he finds paydirt for a third time against the Browns, so $5,200 seems like a great investment opportunity.Gabriel Davis, Buffalo Bills vs. Indianapolis Colts (DK: $4,000 | FD: $5,000)Another promising rookie, Davis has formed a good connection with MVP candidate Josh Allen. His catch count and total yards from scrimmage may not turn heads, but his red-zone and per-catch numbers paint a more promising picture. He has a 15.4-percent red-zone target share, and has hauled in seven touchdowns in 12 red-zone opportunities (58 percent). He also averages 17.1 yards per catch, which ranks fourth in the NFL. The Colts have a strong secondary (and defensive unit in general), but things could get dicey if Indy cornerback Rock Ya-Sin misses a second straight game due to concussion. Veteran CBs Xavier Rhodes and Kenny Moore would likely be stuck with the unenviable tasks of covering Stefon Diggs and John “Blur” Brown. If Davis gets open for a long one, the third-year stud QB will find him, just like Buffalo QBs didfor 107 yards and a TD last week.Wild Card NFL DFS Picks: TE sleepers, valuesLogan Thomas, Washington Football Team vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (DK: $4,900 | FD: $6,400)The breakout tight end has made the most of his three nationally televised games this season. He caught all four targets in a win over Dallas on Thanksgiving. One week later, he grabbed all nine targets for 98 yards in a Monday evening upset over Pittsburgh. Last Sunday night, he grabbed three passesfor 37 yards in a playoff-clinching win over the Eagles. He scored a touchdown in all three of those prime-time games, and he’s caught 20 combined passes in his past two home games. I would be surprised if Thomas registered anything less than 50 yards and a score against Tampa Bay, who rank 21st in fantasy points allowed to tight ends. Side note: Grab this dude in your fantasy drafts next season!Jared Cook, New Orleans Saints vs. Chicago Bears (DK: $4,600 | FD: $5,900)Cook has quietly been the Saints’ most dependable receiver since Week 13, with 15 receptions on 23 targets for 219 yards and three touchdowns. He caught five-of-seven targets for 51 yards and a score when these teams first met in Chicago back in Week 8, and he should be busy again this week at home. He has a 10.9 PPR average over the past five games, and RotoQL lists his projected ceiling at 23.4 points. Cook at $4,600 looks like an absolute steal. BetQL, RotoQL’s sister product, simplifies the research process for sports bettors by equipping them with real-time line movements, value bets of the day and meaningful team trends.Check it out here!Wild Card NFL DFS values: D/ST sleepersSeattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams (DK: $2,700 | FD: $3,600)Color me shocked that DFS sites list Seattle in the bottom-half of the 12-team slate this wild-card weekend. The Seahawks have been a legitimate defense since their midseason acquisition of pass-rusher Carlos Dunlap, and they have logged nine or more fantasy points in five of the past six weeks. These teams just met in Week 16, and Seattle held LA to 216 passing yards and nine total points with Jared Goff. Now the Rams might be stuck starting John Wolford, who listed his LinkedIn industry as “Finance” up until his start in Goff’s place last week. It’s a great story --and Wolford did get the Rams the win last week -- but he will surely make mistakes in a playoff game in Seattle if Goff still doesn’t get the thumbs-up. This is a layup of a value pick, in my humble opinion.
Where is there value in next year's NBA title odds?
So several books released odds for the 2021 NBA championship already. Which teams have value in their odds? Even though each book has slightly different odds, I'll be using Fanduel's odds for this analysis since it seems they're pretty standard.
Good Value
The teams I will 100% be betting on. I have one favorite I'll put a lot more payroll on and some hedges that I think would be most likely to disrupt my main bet. Los Angeles Lakers (+380) To me, they're clear favorites to repeat. Lebron and AD is by far the best duo in the league and both of them consistently step it up in playoffs. Their supporting cast might not be as talented as some other contenders, but they fit very well and everyone knows their defined roles. They even have the chance to upgrade their role players by trading a package of Danny Green and Kuzma for players who would be more immediately useful to Lebron. Even though there's a lot that can go wrong in a season, and an injury to Anthony Davis would kill the Lakers, it's amazing to me that the Laker's odds are barely shorter now then they were last offseason. I would have expected +200 odds at the shortest for the Lakers, so I see value here. Dallas Mavericks (+2000) To hedge the above bet, I thought about which teams have the potential to surpass the Lakers. If Luka really is GOAT material, it's possible he's a top 2 player next season. A jump from Luka, a slight decline from Lebron, and the Mavs offense continuing to be league breaking might lead to the Mavs just overwhelming everyone next season. KP's health doesn't help things. And honestly, Luka hasn't yet proven he can endure the grind of 82 games plus a long postseason run. But everything could go right for them. I think they're a worthy wager at +2000 and have a better chance than many of the teams with shorter odds. Golden State Warriors (+1400) Yes, the Curry/Klay/Dray core hasn't had to play a full season with so little depth. But in the 2019 postseason, even after Durant went down they were a fearsome team. Not expecting Wiggins to suddenly reach his potential, but I do expect him to at least be a net positive unlike in so many of his Minnesota seasons. I don't want to completely count out the NBA's most recent dynasty, and at +1400 I think they're a good hedge against the Lakers.
Worth A Shot
Felt weird to only bet on Western teams so I included a couple of teams that might have some immediate value in the East. Miami Heat (+1500) I didn't have them under good value because I'm not convinced they make it back to the finals a good percent of the time if the season is normal. No homecourt in any series would make things harder. But, they completely dominated the East and Bam/Herro/Duncan should only continue improving. If the Lakers get injured or fall apart, they could have a great shot at whoever comes out of the West. Boston Celtics (+1300) Another team with great young players in Tatum and Brown. They had some trouble closing out games in the playoffs, so maybe another year of experience will help the Celtics realize their potential.
Jury's Still Out
These are the teams that I would say absolutely not, but if they make the right offseason moves there could be value. Pretty much if any of these teams find a way to trade for CP3 without kneecapping their roster they're back in it. Milwaukee Bucks (+640) Bud's proving himself incapable of making the adjustments necessary to be a good playoff coach. They were close in the 2019 ECF, but seemed pretty outclassed once Nurse made defensive adjustments. They looked totally outclassed against the 5 seed Heat. In their current state, this isn't good value. But a trade for Chris Paul has potential to fix their playoff offense. Giannis + shooters with CP3 orchestrating the offense seems like a recipe for success barring injuries. Los Angeles Clippers (+460) I wanted to put this team in the next tier since they don't have a clear path to trade for CP3 without sacrificing all their depth (unless they trade PG13 lmao). But I don't want to say there's no value since I could still see them winning the ring, but their odds should be much longer than +460. Especially since the Lakers are around +350 to +400. Despite the talent, their roster is overall a poor fit, much unlike their cross-town counterparts. Lou Will and Trez are pure scorers which is redundant with Kawhi and PG, especially since they're also a horrible defensive duo. Bev would be a perfect 3&D guard next to a superstar like Lebron, Harden, or Doncic, but the Clippers needed more playmaking from a point guard. If they resign Morris, letting Trez walk could be addition by subtraction, and acquiring a playmaking guard who can close games would be massive. Philadelphia 76ers (+2400) Normally I'd watch this dumpster fire from a mile away, but +2400 is soooo long. If they trade Horford and assets for CP3 their roster is way less clunky, and CP3 would have a better chance to win than in OKC despite his dislike of Doc.
Wouldn't Bet On It
These are the teams where I don't see a championship path in the next season. Not necessarily the worst teams on this list. Brooklyn Nets (+1300) They seem like a worse version of the 2020 Clippers. Post-injury Durant won't be as good as Kawhi, Kyrie might be better than PG but the supporting cast isn't as talented. I see no plus defenders on this roster outside of Allen (I expect KD to be a monster scorer but for his defense to take a hit from his injury). Maybe some net neutrals at best. Is Dinwiddie gonna be the main playmaker on this roster? Him and Levert suffer from the same problem as Lou Will and Trez - they're scorers on a team that just brought in two superstar scorers. Just looking at the roster construction gives you plenty of reasons to doubt their value as a team with top 8 odds (by most books). That isn't even looking at a potential wasteland of a locker room. Houston Rockets (+1600) I have no faith in Tilman's cheap ass to keep a title contending roster together, and wouldn't be surprised if he requested to blow it up. But let's assume they keep the team together. Russ can't seem to stay healthy anymore. Even when he was healthy this season, he slightly detracted from Harden's game rather than bolstering it. They got taken to a one possession game 7 by a Thunder team with less overall talent that was getting outcoached to boot. If they stay small, I don't see how their legs hold up well enough to shoot respectably from three while they're spending so much energy on defense. And they don't have the pieces for new management to come in and retool the roster into something truly competitive in only one year. Toronto Raptors (+1600) I see them once again being a solid team that grabs homecourt. But Siakam is 26, and I don't see a team winning anything if he's the lead option. Great org, but not enough talent. Denver Nuggets (+1600) This is a controversial one. A young underdog team that took out the heel team with a number of crazy comebacks is bound to be a fan favorite. Add that they're a small market team lead by a white superstar to make them loved by all of Reddit. Even though they had some injuries this postseason, I don't see them replicating their success again. Jokic is 25 going on 26 so I don't think we'll see a huge leap from him. But most of all: Jamal Murray. I certainly don't see him staying that hot and hitting so many highly contested jumpers. Not sure if it was clearer focus due to no fans or getting hot at the right time. Is he better than 18.5 points and 5 assists on average efficiency? Sure. But will he always give you 27 and 7 on insane efficiency? Probably not. But they needed that insanity to survive two game 7s. And the west should be tougher next season. Grant could walk. Warriors coming back. Clippers with a new coach and probably a less flawed roster. Mavs improving by virtue of 21 year old Luka getting better every year. The Nuggets don't have as many glaring ways to improve their team like the teams in the above tier and will have a tougher time next year. Almost everything I said above goes out the window if Houston really blows it up and the Nuggets land Harden. Agree? Disagree? What are your thoughts?
Week 17 NFL DFS Picks: Best value players, sleepers for DraftKings, FanDuel daily fantasy football lineups
The final week of the 2020 NFL season is upon us, and the majority of season-long fantasy leagues have already crowned their champions. But DFS sites like DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo allow you to extend the fantasy fun, and assemble brand-new lineups with healthy players from teams still actively competing for playoff positioning. Before every week of this season, I have provided a list of my favorite DFS sleepers and under-the-radar value plays. I do so with the help of RotoQL, which featuresup-to-date rankings of every NFL players’ DFS prices, values, stat projections, floors, and ceilings. If you read this column last week, you would have benefited greatly from our advice to make the following DFS roster picks (all Week 16 prices and fantasy points via DraftKings): QB Andy Dalton ($5,500): 30.6 fantasy pointsQB Mitchell Trubisky ($5,700): 24.6QB Jalen Hurts ($7,000): 20.6RB David Johnson ($6,100): 31.9RB J.K. Dobbins ($6,200): 13.7WR Mike Evans ($6,100): 43.1WR Brandin Cooks ($6,200): 30.1WR Tee Higgins ($4,700): 21.9TE Austin Hooper ($3,500): 14.1TE Mark Andrews ($5,700): 13.6TE Logan Thomas ($4,900): 13.3Tampa Bay D/ST ($3,800): 12San Fran D/ST ($2,700): 11Washington D/ST ($3,000): 9These players (and defenses) all vastly outperformed their price tiers, with some even leading their positions for the week. By finding such great values at modest costs, DFS managers afforded themselves studs like Deshaun Watson, Travis Kelce, and Jonathan Taylor in other roster spots.MORE WEEK 17 DFS: Best stacks| Lineup BuilderYou can read Week 17 previews and fantasy prediction articles 24/7onBetQL, find out which side the pros are betting on their NFL expert picks dashboard, follow all the NFL public betting data, and build DraftKings lineupson RotoQL.Let's break down ourtop Week 17 DFS value plays, and you can get an idea of why 100,000DFSplayers trustRotoQLto build lineups. We constantly monitor pricingand provide the most up-to-date insight and analysis to maximize your lineup success.Optimize, find value plays, and increase your chances of cashing today!WEEK 17 DFS TOURNAMENT LINEUPS: DraftKings| FanDuelNFL DFS Picks Week 17: QB sleepers, valuesKirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (DK: $6,300 | FD: $7,700)Cousins has enjoyed a fantastic home stretch of the regular season, averaging 23.6 fantasy points since Week 11. Now he faces a Lions defense surrendering the third-most fantasy points in the league. In Detroit’s past five games, QBs have averaged 299.2 passing yardswhile throwing a combined total of 15 touchdowns. RotoQL has Cousins projected to score 21 fantasy points, easily the highest-projected score for any signal-caller under $7,000 on DraftKings.Philip Rivers, Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (DK: $6,000 | FD: $7,300)I’m shocked at how many times I have recommended Rivers in this column this seasonconsidering he almost perennially makes my personal ‘Do Not Draft’ list, but the veteran QB’s listed prices have been values more often than not this seasonand he almost always delivers against poor defenses. Enter the Jaguars, who yield the second-most fantasy points to QBs and tank better than the Jets. RotoQL projects Rivers at 18.4with a ceiling of 28.7 points.Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos (DK: $5,700 | FD: $7,200)Aww, we’re getting nostalgic in the last week of the regular season! Carr has also made this list a handful of times this yearand for good reason. Like Rivers, the Raiders QB is unspectacular but solid. He doesn’t make too many mistakes, which limits his fantasy floor, and he has play-making receivers who boost his ceiling. Denver ranks 21st in fantasy points allowed to QBs, so he’s a great investment at $5,700.New Year’s Bonus: Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (DK: $5,900 | FD: $7,400)You had me at Carolina. The Panthers have served as many QBs’ ‘get-right games’ this season, which should be no different this week for the future Hall-of-Famer. Brees averages 24.4 fantasy points in his past three games against the Panthers. If he can’t hit Black Jack against them this week, he might not be physically ready for the playoffs.WEEK 17 DFS CASH LINEUPS: DraftKings | FanDuelWeek 17 DraftKings, FanDuel Picks: RB sleepers, valuesD'Andre Swift, Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings (DK: $6,300 | FD: $7,500)The rookie has faced quite a few tough run defenses in the second half of the season, butSwift has still averaged17.4 fantasy points over his past five games. He turned 16 touches into 97 yards the first time these teams met in Week 9, and he has exceeded that touch count in three of the past four weeks since. With 4.6 average yards per carry and nine total touchdowns, it will be difficult to stay away from Swift at $6,300 against the Vikings, who rank 27th against RBs in fantasy land.Melvin Gordon III, Denver Broncos vs. Las Vegas Raiders (DK: $5,700 | FD: $6,800)The veteran Gordon kicked the turbo boosters on for the home stretch of 2020, accumulating 500 yards on the ground in 93 carries since Week 10 (5.4 yards per carry). Look for him to find paydirt for the 10th time this season, and with 107 yards, he can reach the 1,000-yard mark for just the second time in his career. The Raiders have ceded the fourth-most fantasy points to RBs this seasonand 6.1 yards per carry to bell-cow backs since these teams last met in mid-November. We’re down with MG3 in Week 17.Gus Edwards, Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (DK: $4,900 | FD: $6,100)While the Ravens have underwhelmed this season, the ‘Gus Bus’ has been rolling like it’s got Sandra Bullock at the wheel. Since Week 13, Edwards has carried the ball 38 times for 277 yards (7.3 yards per carry), and he’s found the end zone twice. He also has 73 receiving yards over Baltimore’s past two games. David Johnson just rushed for 128 yards and a score against Cincinnati, one week after Benny Snell carved the Bengals up for 107 total yards and a score. Ride the Bus to DFS glory at a discount deal this week.Nyheim Hines, Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (DK: $4,900 | FD: $6,000)Another deal at under $5,000, Hines has very quietly put up 60 fantasy points since Week 12. He serves as one of Rivers’ security blankets, equally capable of doing damage on the ground and through the air. The Jaguars are the gift that keeps on giving, as they rank 30th in fantasy against RBs. RotoQL lists Hines’ ceiling at 28.5 PPR points, a mark he hit in Week 10 against the Titans.New Year’s Bonus: Latavius Murray, New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (DK: $5,900 | FD: $5,500)He’s no Alvin Kamara, but that’s why Murray’s priced $3,600 lower than his teammate. The change-of-pace back has scored 23.5 total fantasy points over the past two games, and now he draws a Panthers defense that has been dreadful against the run all year. RotoQL gives him a 10.3-point projection with a ceiling of 39.7.WEEK 17 PPR RANKINGS:Quarterback|Running back|Wide receiver|Tight end|D/ST|KickerFanDuel, DraftKings Picks Week 17: WR sleepers, valuesT.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (DK: $5,800 | FD: $6,300)Maybe Hilton traded for himself on his own fantasy team late in the seasonbecause he’s averaged 18.4 PPR points since Week 12. Now he gets to inflict some pain on a Jacksonville secondary that has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to receivers this season. I know, I’m hammering the Jaguars this week, butHilton will hammer them, too, whether you insert him into your lineups or not.Keke Coutee, Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans (DK: $5,600 | FD: $5,700)At least somebody benefited from the Will Fuller suspension. Coutee has scored 61.2 fantasy points since Week 13 (15.3 per game), clearly earning the trust of Texans QB Deshaun Watson. Coutee has seen the field for 73 percent of Houston’s offensive snaps since the Fuller suspension, and he’s caught 21-of-24 targets in that span. Tennessee has allowed the third-most points to wideouts this season. RotoQL projects the third-year speedster at 13 PPR pointswith a 25-point ceiling.Russell Gage, Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (DK: $5,100 | FD: $5,700)Another wideout who has benefited from the absence of a teammate, Gage has stepped up since Julio Jones suffered a hamstring injury in Week 13. Since then, Gage has 18 grabs for 224 yards and two scores. He will look to close out the season well against the Bucs, who have been surprisingly generous to receivers in fantasy this year (23rd). The oveunder for this game is set at 50 points, and Tampa Bay has scored 78 points total in the past two weeks. Expect Falcons QB Matt Ryan to throw early and often, with Gage once again profiting from the volume.Marvin Jones Jr., Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings (DK: $5,100 | FD: $6,100)Jones has been a boom-or-bust play this season, with nearly 60 combined PPR points in Weeks 13 and 15 but just 13.7 combined in Weeks 14 and 16. We at RotoQL expect him to boom again in Week 17, not just because he’s an odd-number type of guy but also because the Lions face a vulnerable Vikings secondary ranked 24th in fantasy points allowed to receivers. We have Jones projected at 14.2 fantasy points, with a much higher ceiling if QB Matthew Stafford (ankle) can suit up.New Year’s Bonus: Michael Gallup, Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (DK: $5,000 | FD: $6,200)I’ve forgiven Gallup for helping my opponent eliminate me from my fantasy league’s playoffs a few weeks back (I started him in my FLEX spot over Miles Sanders the week Sanders went off against the Saints…gulp). Gallup seems to have forgiven himself, as well, as he scored 11.6 points last week against San Francisco and a whopping 33.1 points last week against the Eagles. Expect double-digits in a huge NFC East battle with the G-Men this weekend.WEEK 17 STANDARD RANKINGS:Quarterback|Running back|Wide receiver|Tight end|D/ST|KickerWeek 17 NFL DFS Picks: TE sleepers, valuesMark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (DK: $5,800 | FD: $7,200)Ravens QB Lamar Jackson has recently looked a lot more like he did during his 2019 MVP campaign than he did earlier in the season. Part of the reason is because he has reestablished his healthy connection with Andrews. The 6-5, 256-pound tight end has 77.7 points over the course of Baltimore’s past five games (15.5 per game), and now he travels to Cincinnati to face a Bengals D ranked 28th in fantasy against his position.Irv Smith Jr., Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (DK: $3,900 | FD: $5,600)Smith reached 15 or more PPR points for the third time in five weeks when he scored 23.3 against a good Saints defense in New Orleans on Christmas. RotoQL sees that 23-point mark as his ceiling against the floundering Lions, who rank 24th against tight ends in fantasy. As a red-zone favorite of the aforementioned Cousins, Smith may very well find paydirt for the third time in two weeks.New Year’s Bonus: Noah Fant, Denver Broncos vs. Las Vegas Raiders (DK: $4,400 | FD: $5,700)It’s good to let go of grudges and grievances around the New Year, so I’m willing to forgive and forget about the fact that Fant did next-to-nothing for me in the four fantasy leagues I drafted him this year. Fant has scored 33.3 combined PPR points in Denver’s past two games, and he gets to finish the season off strong against a miserable Raiders defense.BetQL, RotoQL’s sister product, simplifies the research process for sports bettors by equipping them with real-time line movements, value bets of the day and meaningful team trends.Check it out here! Week 17 NFL DFS values: D/ST sleepersSeattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (DK: $3,000 | FD: $3,900)The Seahawks D, which was historically bad in the first half of the season, has been surprisingly good in the second half. The biggest difference-maker has been Carlos Dunlap, who has provided Seattle with an actual pass-rush since coming over via trade. The Seahawks have scored at least nine fantasy points in every game since Week 11, and the 49ers often make mistakes with Nick Mullens under center.I wish all of our readers a happy and healthy New Year, and hope you all start 2021 with some big-time DFS winnings!
Week 16 NFL DFS Picks: Best value players, sleepers for DraftKings, FanDuel daily fantasy football lineups
As the 2020 NFL regular season roars towards the finish line, so, too, do the majority of fantasy football redraft leagues. If you made the championship round, congratulations! If not, there’s always next year, and for now, there’s always DFS sites like DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. These sites allow you to construct a brand-new roster each time, acquiring players at different salaries and keeping your team under a hard cap. In order to achieve DFS success, you must pinpoint under-the-radar value plays and sleepers so you can afford weekly studs in other roster slots. That’s where RotoQL comes in -- we provide detailed rankings of each NFL players’ DFS prices, values, stat projections, floors, and ceilings. I then compile a detailed list of our favorite under-the-radar value players, and we provide it to you free of charge via this weekly column. If you checked in last week, you would have benefited greatly from our advice to make the following DFS roster picks (all Week 15 prices and fantasy points via DraftKings): QB Jalen Hurts ($5,900): 40.8 fantasy pointsQB Philip Rivers ($5,900): 17RB D’Andre Swift ($6,400): 23.2RB JKDobbins ($5,900): 15.1WR Brandon Aiyuk ($6,300): 22.3WR: T.Y. Hilton ($5,500): 11.1Arizona D/ST ($2,900): 10These players (and Arizona’s D) all vastly outperformed their price tiers, with some even leading their positions for the week. By finding such great values at modest costs, DFS managers afforded themselves studs like Derrick Henry and Calvin Ridley in other roster spots.MORE WEEK 16 DFS: Best stacks|Lineup BuilderYou can read Week 16 previews and fantasy prediction articles 24/7onBetQL, find out which side the pros are betting on their NFL expert picks dashboard, follow all the NFL public betting data, and build DraftKings lineupson RotoQL.Let's break down ourtop Week 16 DFS value plays, and you can get an idea of why 100,000DFSplayers trustRotoQLto build lineups. We constantly monitor pricingand provide the most up-to-date insight and analysis to maximize your lineup success.Optimize, find value plays, and increase your chances of cashing today!WEEK 16 DFS TOURNAMENT LINEUPS: DraftKings | FanDuelNFL DFS Picks Week 16: QB sleepers, valuesJalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (DK: $7,000 | FD: $8,200)Coach Doug Pederson probably secretly wishes he had turned to Hurts earlier this season, as the rookie phenom has been explosive in his two starts for Philly. He posted 23.3 fantasy points in Week 14 against the Saintsand a whopping 40.8 in Arizona last week. Now he gets a dome game in Dallasagainst one of the more disappointing defenses of 2020. RotoQL projects Hurts to score 21.8 fantasy points against the Cowboys this weekendwith a40.8-pointceiling. Fire the rookie up with confidence.Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns at New York Jets (DK: $6,100 | FD: $7,600)Mayfield has morphed into a sensational playmaker this season. Six days after nearly leading the Browns over the Ravens on Monday Night Football with 366 total yards and three scores, the third-year QB went 27-of-32 for 297 yards and two TDs against a good Giants defense in a 20-6 spanking. After Pittsburgh choked against the Bengals on Monday, the AFC North is very much in play for the Browns. Expect a huge statistical game for Mayfield against the lowly Jets, who rank 30th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacksand have allowed three passing TDs per game over the past three weeks.Mitchell Trubisky, Chicago Bears at Jacksonville Jaguars (DK: $5,700 | FD: $7,200)Clearly the Bears should have kept Trubisky under center the whole season, as he’s now 5-2 as a starter in 2020. He may not be the future in Chicago but he’s definitely the present, and there’s no better gift to a QB than a sunny late-December meeting with the Jaguars. Jacksonville serves up the second-most fantasy points to QBsand has surrendered five passing TDs in the past two games.Stocking Stuffer SpecialAndy Dalton, Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles (DK: $5,500 | FD: $6,900)Dalton finally looks comfortable under center in Dallas, and he’s quietly averaged about 17 fantasy points over his past five games. Kyler Murray just put up 406 passing yards and three TDs against Philly’s secondary, so we like Red Rifle in this crucial home game against the Cowboys’ division rivals.Saturday Slate Standouts:Kyler Murray, Cardinals; Tom Brady, Buccaneers; Derek Carr, RaidersWEEK 16 DFS CASH LINEUPS: DraftKings |FanDuelWeek 16 DraftKings, FanDuel Picks: RB sleepers, valuesDavid Johnson, Houston Texans vs. Cincinnati Bengals (DK: $6,100 | FD: $6,700)After missing a handful of contests to a concussion and COVID-19 (not the kind of alliteration you want), DJ exploded for 133 all-purpose yards in Indianapolis last weekend. He caught all 11 of his targets, serving as Deshaun Watson’s security blanket against a tough Colts front seven. The Bengals looked pretty darn good against the Steelers last weekend, but they still allow 128.6 rushing yards per game (seventh worst in the NFL). Johnson should grab at least 60 yards on the groundand maybe another 50 through the air. RotoQL projects him to score 15.8 fantasy points this weekend, which would equal enormous value at these prices.JKDobbins, Baltimore Ravens vs. New York Giants (DK: $6,200 | FD: $6,300)Dobbins has been one of the best offensive rookies in the second half of the 2020 season, and he’s averaged 14 fantasy points overthe past four weeks. The Giants have a good secondary, but their front seven has been vulnerable to good running games. The Ravens are one of the best rushing teams in the NFL, and Dobbins has emerged as their best back. Expect another double-digit points performance from the talented rookie this weekend.Le'Veon Bell, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Atlanta Falcons (DK: $5,800 | FD: $6,400)After standout rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire suffered a high-ankle sprain and hip strain in a gruesome-looking play Sunday, Bell is now the true bell-cow in KC. The veteran has done it all for the Chiefs lately, and he logged 76 scrimmage yards and a score in their big 32-29 win over the Saints. The Falcons D has been better as of late, but it’s still susceptible to big-play guys in high-flying offenses. Leonard Fournette just scored two TDs in Atlanta last week, and it’s a good bet that Bell can fall in the end zone at least once this week.Stocking Stuffer SpecialChase Edmonds, Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers (DK: $4,600 | FD: $6,400)I’ve been one of the loudest critics of Kenyan Drake this season, and I maintain that Edmonds is a better fantasy player (and RB in general) than Drake. Edmonds touched the ball 14 times in Arizona’s big win over Philly last week, netting 66 yards and a touchdown (15.6 PPR points). Meanwhile, Drake managed just 40 yards on 12 touchesand appeared banged up throughout the game. RotoQL projects Edmonds at 10 PPR points with a 38-point ceiling on Saturday.Saturday Slate Standouts:D’Andre Swift, Lions; Salvon Ahmed, DolphinsWEEK 16 PPR RANKINGS:Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | KickerFanDuel, DraftKings Picks Week 16: WR sleepers, valuesBrandin Cooks, Houston Texans vs. Cincinnati Bengals (DK: $6,200 | FD: $7,000)Cooks missed one game after suffering a concussion against Indy in Week 13, but he returned to face the same Colts last weekend. He recorded six receptions on seven targets for 59 yards inhis fourth consecutive game with at least 11.9 PPR points. Cincinnatihas a much weaker secondary than Indy, so expect the volume to translate into more points production for Cooks this weekend. He’s Deshaun Watson’s A-1 ever since Will Fuller’s suspension, and he’s well worth these price tags.Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans (DK: $4,700 | FD: $5,900)Bengals veteran wideout Tyler Boyd (concussion) got banged up in the upset win over the Steelers last week, so the rookie could be in for a huge volume boost from third-string QB Ryan Finley. The Texans’ pass defense has been abysmal this season, ranking 23rd in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. He's a volatile play, but Higgins could come with a huge reward at a low cost.Sammy Watkins, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Atlanta Falcons (DK: 5,000 | FD: $5,400)Watkins has had a tough 2020, but Patrick Mahomes has increasingly involved the veteran wideout in the past few weeks. He has 22 targets since returning from injury in Week 12, and he’s caught four passes in three of those four games. He logged 60 receiving yards against a dynamic Saints secondary last week, so 80 yards and a score seem attainable at home against the last-ranked Falcons passing defense.Stocking Stuffer SpecialAllen Lazard, Green Bay Packers vs. Tennessee Titans (DK: $4,200 | FD: $5,700)Lazard has been heating up as of late, making up for the time he lost to core muscle surgery. Only two teams give up more fantasy points to wide receivers than Tennessee, so some of the volume should go his way this weekend.Saturday Slate Standouts:Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers; Mike Evans, Buccaneers; Marvin Jones, LionsWEEK 16 STANDARD RANKINGS:Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | KickerWeek 16 NFL DFS Picks: TE sleepers, valuesMark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens vs. New York Giants (DK: $5,700 | FD: $7,000)The high-flying Ravens are back just in time for a playoff push, and Andrews has been one of the main catalysts. The 6-5, 256-pound veteran has averaged 17 fantasy points over his past three contests, and he remains one of the more trustworthy targets in the NFL on third down and in the red zone. Unlike the majority of tight ends, Andrews has a massive ceiling and a decent floor. The Giants have allowed tight ends to find paydirt in each of their past two games, and Andrews has caught nine-of-13 red-zone targets this season (with two TDs in the past three games), so getting the Pro Bowler at $5,700 is an early Christmas gift.Logan Thomas, Washington Football Team vs. Carolina Panthers (DK: $4,900 | FD: $6,000)A perfect storm of factors went into this recommendation. The veteran journeyman has enjoyed a breakout season, with 62 receptions and five touchdowns. He’s coming off his best volume game of the season, having caught 13-of-15 targets for 101 yards against the Seahawks. And this week he lines up against the Panthers defense, one of the worst units in the league and the eighth-most generous fantasy D to tight ends. Thomas has caught 32 of his 35 targets over the past four games, so you might want to hop aboard Thomas the Tank before DFS sites start to catch on.Stocking Stuffer Special:Austin Hooper, Cleveland Browns at New York Jets (DK: $3,500 | FD: $5,100)Hooper came back last week from a one-game absence due to a neck injury, and he posted 15.1 fantasy points in the Browns’ win over the Giants. Now he gets to face off with the other Big Apple team, the lowly Jets, who serve as the most generous defense to tight ends. It’s been a tough year for Hooper -- emergency appendectomy, neck ailments, etc. -- but this game should prove to be a much-needed stat-padder for the two-time Pro Bowler.Saturday Slate Standouts:Darren Waller, Raiders; Rob Gronkowski, Buccaneers; Jordan Reed, 49ersBetQL, RotoQL’s sister product, simplifies the research process for sports bettors by equipping them with real-time line movements, value bets of the day and meaningful team trends.Check it out here!Week 16 NFL DFS values: D/ST sleepersWashington Football Team vs. Carolina Panthers (DK: $3,000 | FD: $4,800) The team with no name sure has one hell of a defense. WFT has emerged as one of the more dominant squads in football, and it’s coming off a tough 20-15 loss to the Seahawks. Newsflash: Carolina sans-Christian McCaffrey comes nowhere near the offensive ability of Seattle. I think the Panthers struggle in D.C. this weekend, and Washington logs at least 11 fantasy points for the fifth time this season.Saturday Slate Standouts:Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions; Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers
This is an example of fundamental DD that takes place at ‘smart’ money institutions based on my professional experience in IBD, Private Equity & most recently at a HF (mods can message me for proof). Not thoroughly fleshed out b/c you autists have limited attention spans, but a summary. Figured I’d take the time to give back to this community that has provided many lolz, & should be a good measuring stick when evaluating other forms of fundamental DD posted here. NFA. DKNG - DraftKings, Inc.: vertically integrated US mobile betting operator that also provides retail sports betting & back-end betting solutions through SBTech. Think of SBTech as the tech ‘market-maker’ for traditional sports betting, they do all the funny math to set the betting odds & seem to be working on back-end solutions for DKNG Casino The Big Picture
Total annual US Gambling Revenue: ~$90Bn [1]
Casinos: ~$75Bn
Illegal Sports Betting: ~$13Bn
Horse Racing: ~$0.8Bn
Daily Fantasy Sports: ~$0.4Bn
Only ~2% of the ~$90Bn gambling revenues were placed online which is the lowest in the world where betting online is legal. For example, in other countries online gaming activity represents ~6% - ~52% of total gambling revenues, with ~12% being the average. Wall Street expects online gaming revenue to be $20Bn-$40Bn within the next 10 years. For this to be achieved, the online gambling market will have to achieve a ~30% penetration rate on total country gaming revenues. There is an expectation that this is could be easily achievable given penetration trends overseas - see page 11 of this: https://s1.rationalcdn.com/vendors/stars-group/documents/presentations/TSG-Investor-Day_March-27-2019.pdf Other catalysts include increasing adaptation of sports betting in more states. States that have both legal sports betting + online sports betting permitted: NV, NJ, WV, PA, IA. Sports betting permitted but no online: DE, MS, RI, MO, AR. Prior to COVID there was ongoing discussions across many States, especially ones with growing deficits to explore how permitting sports betting could create a fresh avenue of tax dollars. Post COVID there is an expectation that these discussions will be given extra focus as many States will be hungry for incremental tax dollars. Important to note that currently 43/50 States allow DFS, but given the small share DFS has on total Gaming Revenues, it increasingly looks like DKNG is banking on traditional sports betting for a variety of reasons, more later. There are entire articles on Google arguing this catalyst so I’ll end this here. Digging Deeper DKNG’s main offerings are Daily Fantasy Sports (“DFS”) products & traditional sports book products to its clients. Long story short, a metric to look for in my opinion (that is curiously not reported by management or remarked on) is the hold % in traditional gaming sector parlance or the ‘rake’ & compare it to the ‘traditional’ gaming products like sports betting & Blackjack. For DFS: DKNG takes ~15% of the prize pool (note: used to be ~6-11% [2]). Curiously, their main competitor FanDuel also has moved up to a ~15% rake recently. Google searches show the smaller competitors have a rake in the ~13% range. This ‘rake’ has grown ~2x in 6 years, but it has been a delicate move on behalf of management. Why? B/c the more ‘sophisticated’ DFS players (equal to autistic day traders on Robinhood) have noted this increase & based on some Googling, some have moved down market to the smaller players. As a side note, many live casino games have their rules altered to grow the Hold %. For example, Blackjack games with 6:5 payouts on 21 have materially higher Hold % than the traditional BJ rules that pay out 3:2. Given the findings so far, DKNG may not have much room to materially increase its hold % in DFS games in the near-term from current of 15%. More on this later. Now why the fuck is this important? This is important b/c the typical sports book (ex-Parlays) have a ~5% hold %/rake. Parlays have up to a ~30% hold (which is why it’s commonly known as the sucker’s bet), & just for reference, the average Blackjack table clocks in 14.5%. What this means: Every dollar put into these games, the “House” or DKNG, will take 15% of your money for DFS games, for sports bets they will be pocketing ~5%, up to ~30% if you’re into parlays, & we’ll just use the standard 14.5% BJ hold for the DraftKings Casino platform. So why the acquisition of SBTech & a foray into the traditional sports gambling market? As you can see previously, the illegal sports betting market is >30x the size of the current daily fantasy sports market. So it’s clear that the DFS providers including DKNG are foraying into the space to capture this user base & hopefully convert them into games that have a higher hold %, such as DFS/DKNG Casino. As of May 2020, DKNG has achieved a 30% penetration rate on its ~4mm ‘monetized’ DFS clientele to its Online Sports Book (OSB), from the OSB+DFS clientele, DKNG has converted 50% into its DraftKings Casino platform. Including non-monetized users, user base totals at 12mm. Based on these unit economics: every 1mm of additional users -> 333k monetized users for DFS -> 100k users for OSB -> 50k users for DraftKings Casino. Some Numbers – Italicized/Bolded the important
In total, DKNG has DFS paying clientele of ~4mm, the metric management focuses on is “Monthly Unique Payers (MUP)” which spans across DFS & online sports betting***. As of Q1’20 they reported 720,000*** MUPs, representing +16% YoY growth [3]
Average revenue per monthly user (ARPU) of ~$41, +11% YoY
Based on previous observation of Hold %, looks like ARPU growth will be limited
Since ’17, MUP has grown at a ~11% CAGR & ARPU has grown at a ~19% CAGR
As a side note: the ~4mm monetized user base was acquired at ~$122/user over 3 years. Total users cost them $41/user over the last 3 years [3].
They are currently EBITDA negative & Wall St expects them to be positive by 2023
I took a dive into the math driving this, here is a summary:
Based on their current cost structure they will need to have ~1.7mm MUPs at an ARPU of ~$46 to break-even. This implies total monetized users of ~10mm from ~4mm currently
Numbers that represent Risks to Long Thesis
DKNG’s user base of ~12mm is on the low end of the sector vs. its ‘brick & mortar’ competitor's user bases (online betting platforms with physical casino presence)
CZR with 55mm, MGM with 33mm, ERI with 10mm (in pending merger with CZR, could have a lot of overlap), FanDuel with 8.5mm
Is there a concern for increased marketing costs to increase user base? Let’s look at a case study of NJ, the first state to open both mobile & retail sports betting:
FanDuel + DraftKings have held 80%+ of the OSB market share since 12/2018 which is estimated to be driven by the conversion opportunity from DFS that is unique to both companies [4]
On the flipside, a case study to examine going forward is how DKNG can get OSB customers in a State that does not allow DFS. Nevada. Home to Las fucking Vegas. Prior to NV pushing FanDuel/DKNG out (highly likely due to casino lobbying), NV was a top-15 State in terms of revenue for them. NV is home to the fattest sports book in the US, & recently the gaming commission started to parse the data on sportsbook wagers done online vs. in-person, & it came out to roughly 50/50. It will be interesting to see how they try to capture market share in a state with no DFS
Long-term EBITDA margin target of 35% requires huge growth in MUPs
Based on their estimated '22 cost structure: Holding ARPU of ~$46, MUPs will have to be ~5.2mm, a 7x increase from current to achieve a EBITDA margin of 35%
A focus on future earnings will be management's ability to shift to a more fixed-cost structure which would effectively lower the MUP requirement for profitability
Things to look for when going Long - Progress of additional States legalizing sports betting – specifically, States with DFS already legalized - Cost structure evolving to a more fixed mix vs. the mostly variable mix currently as this will be the forward figure that determines profitability - Increasing User Base (Curr.: 12mm) -> Monetized Base (Curr.: 4mm) -> MUP (1Q’20: 0.7mm)
Management seems to be focused more on the first step, but one thing to note is that the 33% monetization rate is very high when compared to something like League of Legends which isn’t entirely comparable but in 2013 had a ~4% monetization rate [5]. This, combined with the below implies that this conversion rate may be the ceiling for now
As a side note, ~6 years ago FanDuel had ~300k monetized on an ~800k user base for a monetization rate of ~37% [6]
Share Price Target Given the cost structure of the company, I’m going to base the price targets around Enterprise Value / Revenues (driven by MUPs & ARPUs).
MUP sensitivity of 5mm - 6mm
ARPU sensitivity from $41 - $47 for an average of $44, just a $3 increase from current of $41.
Share Price targets based on 2.0x - 4.5x EV / Sales.
Note: Flutter Entertainment (FanDuel ParentCo) trades at ~3.6x EV/Sales
Bear Case MUP: 5mm -> $20.32 - $45.73 Base Case MUP: 5.5mm -> $22.27 - $50.10 Bull Case MUP: 6mm -> $24.21 - $54.47 These MUPs imply a monetized customer base of 28mm – 33mm. At the high-end, this implies that DKNG monetized customer base will equal MGM’s current total user base. At yesterday’s close of $43.70, DKNG is trading at 3.5x – 4.5x forward Revenues on an expected >5,000 MUPs. Share Price drivers / considerations: - Continued multiple expansion
Consideration: A 1x premium to FanDuel's 3.6x, implies a ~15% upside to current. They're bigger than FanDuel, do they deserve the premium?
- MUP Growth exceeding beyond targets
Consideration: Stock currently implies that they should on average be growing at 40% QoQ – during 2018 they had on average +30% growth QoQ in MUPs, marking their best year
Management Team Jason Robins, 39 – Co-Founder & CEO. Duke BA, started DraftKings from day 1 in 2011. The 2 other buddies he started the Company with are still at DKNG. Dude navigated the Company through the scandal that rocked them in ’15 & ’16, and was the trailblazer in getting DFS labeled as a non-gambling product that enabled it to open in States without a gaming designation. This shit is the stuff that gets people in history books. His accomplishments make him seem like a very competent guy. Has 3 kids now, and only ~3% economic ownership in DKNG but has 90% of the voting power through his Class B share ownership. Also he actively participates in venture investments, sitting on 10 boards. His comp plan performance bonus target is pretty murky, but main drivers are EPS growth, revenue growth, then a bunch of margin & return metrics, along with share price returns. Overall, very open-ended & it’s safe to say as long as shit doesn’t hit the fan, he will be eligible for his max payouts year over year. I’m assuming the lawyers tried to encompass everything possible for maximum flexibility to justify him earning his max comp as long as DKNG is still around. Since he’s got voting control of 90%, I’ll end the specific-person overview here, but want to note that they have a very bloated C-suite. 12 folks at DKNG, 8 folks at SBTech, all with C-suite designations. Whereas their main competitor FanDuel, has 3 guys with a C-suite designations & 1 EVP, but is a sub under a larger ParentCo that has its own management team of ~5 guys. Looking through glassdoor you can see the biggest complaint among employees giving bad reviews is based on management, all of the specific issues they point out IMO are a result of a top-heavy company. Seems like a good starting point to optimize their cost structure, but given Robins' history of sticking this entire thing through with his co-founders since '11 stuff like this doesn't seem to be a part of his playbook. They’re a public company now though, so it’s going to be interesting to see going forward. TL;DR: If I were to initiate a position in DKNG, the stock would have to fall to the $35-$37 range for me to be a buyer of the stock, and based on this rough intro analysis I'll be considering Put options if it breaches $50. I would not touch Calls at this level. [1] Wall Street Research - 6/27/19 [2] https://rotogrinders.com/articles/bang-for-your-buck-a-look-at-dfs-industry-rake-153302 [3] https://draftkings.gcs-web.com/static-files/8f3a5c5a-7228-45bf-aab2-63604111c48d [4] Wall Street Research - 5/19/20 [5]https://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/223071/Dont_monetize_like_League_of_Legends_consultant_says.php [6] https://rotogrinders.com/threads/how-many-people-actually-play-dfs-regularly-252044
We Have a 15% Chance to Win the Series, and How to Simply Calculate the Odds
Game Odds
Here is a site that has betting odds on NBA games (I'm not affiliated. There are many other options). The American odds are -235 for the Clippers and +194 for the Mavericks. You can use this odds converter to convert that into a probability, in this case 70% and 34% respectively. The reason it adds up to more than 100% is because betting sites add in some margin where they actually make their money.
Series Odds
Now you know how to calculate the results for any given game, for any sports with odds. Great! Now how do we calculate the series? There are two ways.
You find the series odds (-500/83.3% and +360/21.7%)
You assume that each game we have about the same chance of winning and we plug that into this calculator under 'Probability of success on a single trial'. We also plug in 4 for number of successes and 7 for number of trials. We'll find the answer in 'Cumulative probability:P(X >= x)' and when you use 32%, you find that we have a ~15% of winning
Additional Info
If any are interested, I can explain why this works, otherwise, I'll leave this here for you all to play around with. Maybe you think we have a 40% to win each game. Or maybe you want to see the Blazer's chance of winning the series (approximately the same chance). Also, if there is interest, I could explain how to do this for a player's shots to see how hot or cold they were on a given night. Edit: u/lakersbestinleague brought up a good point. Why is it that when I calculate the series odds the first way, it says 20%, but when I calculate it the 2nd way it has 15%. The second way makes some assumptions, namely that the probability of us winning each game is the same, and that the probability doesn't depend on what's happened in earlier games. What this discrepancy indicates to me is that we should expect to have a higher win rate in other games. Perhaps the betting market still feels there is a home court advantage? Edit 2: After our loss tonight, assuming the same 32% chance of winning a game, our chance of winning the series goes down to ~8.5%. (plug in .32, 6, and 4 to the calculator)
TSLA- Thursday night was unlike anything I’d seen after hours. Friday brought us back to reality. What does Monday bring- another surge to $500+, or more of a sell off from Friday? Lots of people (myself included) “waiting” to buy in once it gets to $400. One of the most turbulent stocks out there, and Musk is supremely confident in the brands ability in Q2 and beyond. FANG- everyone is supremely bullish on them, and I feel like I’ve waited too long, but they’re still well below their 52 week high. I don’t know much about fracking, other than that it’s extremely controversial. Floating around $32 right now, is that a good buy in point? DAL- Buffet’s sell off sent a lot of people into a tizzy, but based on what I’m seeing, the amount he sold was a strategic number to avoid “insider trading rules” of some sort. They still seem to be a much safer bet than AAL or UA, and they’ve dipped below $20/share. Is Monday a good time to strike and hold on for the long haul? DEAC- The parent company of FanDuel has been a big talking point in these forums. With MGM and ElDorado looking like a marriage about to happen, no one knows which of the two stocks will be more valuable. PENN is everyone’s favorite courtesy of Dave Portnoy and his corny ass “DaVeY DaY TrAdEr” schtick, but it’s supremely volatile, and I just wait for it to fall under $10 and sell it off later (done that a couple times). 52 week high of $19.20 for DEAC, but it is relatively knee and I only put it on here because of all the discussions I’ve seen around it. CCL- the cheapest of the big 3 in the cruise industry, they’re down a mind boggling 83% the last three months. No bailout money, but they’re not alone. They seem to be the biggest of the 3 despite their low stock price, and cruises are already filling up reservations for 2021. Tie that in with the low price of oil right now (Sidebar- I’m in on XOM because oil just can’t stay this low forever) and they may be a steal under $10. It’ll be a long row, but even making up 1/2 their losses would be a huge win for investors. Would love to hear some thoughts from you all. My portfolio: BA AAPL XOM DIS MSFT CPE 1/15/21 $7.50 call on BLMN @ $2.15
Hey everyone, I’ve been using this reddit for a while, mainly to make myself feel better by hearing about others similar (or in many cases, very much worse situations). I’ll give you a short background on myself and gambling; Since I was about 5 years old I’ve been exposed to gambling. My father bet, my family bet, and anyone close to me gambled. I always knew they lost money but for me it seemed different. After I got older around 16-17 I started gambling on fantasy football leagues. $20 here and $20 there for the potential return of hundreds was amazing. I won a few of those and even won my freshman year of college March madness tournament that raked in $500+! Soon after this I found a bookie that offered online wagering. I won some and loss some, but my weeks never ended with winning or losing more than $200. One week I even won $900 betting NBA, NHL, and NFL was my speciality (I’m a favorites whore to say the least lol) On top of the world and thinking I knew what I was doing I started to increase my wager size. Soon after I realized that my EV (expected value) became negative placing sports wagers and I turned 21 with about a clean slate and $4K saved up. Good summer job that raked in nearly $12k last summer and then I started to go to the casinos... While I had everything under control and never lost more than $400 in a night and won as much as $1200 in my first night gambling at Atlantic City, I still felt positive that I could beat the house. I knew I loved gambling but never admitted I had a problem. I was winning money for Christ’s sake, but I. Was. Addicted. Over the last 9 months I was going to the casino 5-6 nights a week. I thought I had things under control by cashing out when I hit my goal $200/300/400 and trying to leave when I would lose my cash I brought with me (usually max $350) BUT I COULDNT ACCEPT A LOSS. I’d say about 75% of nights I would cash out up my goal, but on bad nights...I’d hit the ATM 3 or 4 times until my withdrawal limit of $1000 was reached that night. Going home pissed off and sad was the worst but it made me appreciate winning so much more..and I always seemed to make it back. One night I lost $950 and the following week I won 6 nights in a row pocketing more than $2000. The casino I regularly used told me I was up close to $7000 on their rewards system since I was using them, and I’ve been to casinos across NY, WV, and even PA never being down or up more than $500, but I did have my go to casino which had me UP. Starting in January things took a turn for the absolute worst. I lost $2500 in 2 weeks at my favorite casino and resorted back to online gambling. I started to win $1000+ a week and some weeks I would lose $1200+ but I still had money in my bank to keep me afloat. A few bad weeks and I started really stressing. My savings hit about $3000 and I graduated college a year ago. Student loans started to hit and my gambling to pay these off got more severe. I started making stupid plays and betting more than anyone should ever have to on basketball lines, tennis sets, and even volleyball. My bank account hit $1500 from the $15k I had less than 9 months prior (rent, student loans, and other expenses was what I attributed it to, but I know I’d have a lot more $ if I didn’t gamble) Covid-19 quarantine hits and there are no casinos, no sports, and nothing to gamble on. I start going stir crazy as I am 100% addicted. Fanduel and DraftKings offer casino Promotions with their RNG platforms!? I make my deposits and start winning instantly. $1000 here and $1800 on one of my best nights. I now have $4500 in my bank and can finally relax, right?? No. I start increasing my bets and the random number generator (RNG) turns into a rigged number generator. I start depositing more and more to try and make back the money I had at one point and the system keeps taking my money. One night I deposited $1600 into my account and lost it all. A couple weeks later and trying to stop gambling here and there, but only being successful for 5-6 days at a time before relapsing, I need help. I want to stop gambling but I feel like that is who I am. I no longer have the funds to gamble and my bank account is at $1000 that I can’t touch. I have 2 jobs right now bringing in close to $2500 a month. I just want to be happy and enjoy life again without the urges to gamble but it’s too accessible. Gambling is a losing hobby, you lose money, friends, relationships, but most importantly your mind. Where do I go from here? How do I stop gambling for longer than a week? What’s life like on the other side of gambling? ...these are questions I ponder everyday. Thanks for reading and I wanted to thank you all for sharing your stories.
A little analysis from our blog regarding MLB Futures odds... Note: All odds referenced are from6:00 pm PTon Tuesday July 21, 2020. Following up on our previous post regarding the restart of the NBA season, today we will look at the odds posted for the 2020 MLB season. As you probably already know, the season has been cut from a 162 game marathon to a 60 game sprint. But don’t think that less games means DraftKings and FanDuel wont try taking advantage of anyone and everyone. Below is a breakdown of how these companies will screw you over when betting on the MLB. When flipping a fair coin, the odds of heads are 50%, and the odds of tails are 50%. The sum of which is 100%. Similarly, rolling a fair six sided die gives a 16.67% of each number (1 through 6) being rolled. Also, a sum of 100%. You would think this would also be the case when it comes to the odds that sportsbooks offer. From the odds posted, we can calculate the implied probabilities that certain events occur. In theory, these implied probabilities should add up to 100% like the coin and die examples. But is that the case? Let's take a look at what DraftKings and FanDuel are offering customers. First, let’s look at the bets offered on Win Totals for 2020. Here are the odds currently posted at DraftKings... Note: At the time of referencing these odds, DraftKings had not posted odds for the Los Angeles Angels or Toronto Blue Jays. 📷 And at FanDuel... 📷 As you can see, each team’s over and under have a calculated probability that we ad together to get the sum of implied probabilities. This sum should theoretically add up to 100%, but at DraftKings the average sum is 105.45% and at FanDuel it is 104.99%. So, there is a 5.45% and 4.99% tax at DraftKings and FanDuel respectively. But that’s not the only way DraftKings and FanDuel screw you over. There is another sneaky way in which they do this. In any game (let’s ignore the extremely rare case of a tie) there will be a winner and a loser. Thus, the total number of wins by all teams in a season must add up to the number of games played in that season. However, if we add up the win totals offered by each company this is not the case. The “game tax” is the number of wins above the actual number of games to be played. At DraftKings this is 8 games for the 28 teams available at the time these odds were referenced. At FanDuel the “game tax” is 5 games for the 30 teams. Just another trick that these companies use to deceive their customers. Now let’s look at the World Series odds: 📷 📷 As we can see, at DraftKings the implied probabilities add up to 126.83%. At FanDuel they add up to 124.12%. Every percentage above 100% is a tax they're charging you on your bet, hence how they're screwing you. So at DraftKings, you're being charged an additional 26.83% and at FanDuel an additional 24.12%. This is also the case with the League Winner odds. 📷 📷 In the American Legaue, we have DraftKings adding up to 121.76% and at FanDuel adding up to 118.59%. Again taxes of 21.76% and 18.59% respectively. Here are the NL odds: 📷 📷 Over in the National League, at DraftKings the odds add up to 121.93%, while adding up to 116.63% at FanDuel. Again taxes of 21.93% and 16.63% respectively. Finally, I have laid out all the taxes charged on each Division Winner at both sites. As you can see the taxes range from 11 to 16%. 📷 📷 📷 📷 We at betX will continue to keep bettors informed on how they're being taken advantage of by these companies. The betX platform aims to eliminate the over-the-top taxes that these sportsbooks have grown accustomed to charging.
bathrobeDFS - Daily Analysis for March 4th and Review of March 3rd
Hello, everyone! bathrobeDFS here with your daily basketball article. First, I will breakdown my lineup for yesterday’s main slate. Then I will go over tonight’s slate from the perspective of a one lineup player on Draftkings. If you have any additional questions or want to see guaranteed updates in regards to breaking news- I provide additional updates, information, and stats on my twitter @bathrobeDFS. Feel free to throw me a follow cause it’s much easier and more timely to provide updates over that medium. It also should go without saying, this is just a preliminary analysis of the slate: everything can change throughout the day, so make sure you are staying on top of any and all injury news and change your lineups accordingly! I am always available to help with any questions there, as well, even if I can’t do a second article. Let’s get started with the Review! Yesterday In Review: My Lineup- -
HIGHEST POSSIBLE SCORE ONLY COST 48500 Analysis- I wanted to go heavy on the MIN/WAS game, so I locked in Beal, KAT, Jabari, Teague, Sato, and Saric in order to differentiate myself from the field. When a couple people are chalky, or a game is going to be chalky, there are, philosophically and practically, two ways to differentiate yourself from the field- either go away from the field and fade, or go hard over the field and overstack the game. If you took that tack with the CHI/ATL game the other day, you made yourself a lot of money. I liked this game that much more than the other 3, and it went ok. Could have been better. I really wanted Avery Bradley, but just didn’t work him in for some reason. With Kawhi out, I also locked in Lowry and an underpriced OG. Join us on Flick! For the rest of this week, I want to give people a chance to see this. After that, I will just make it a mention in the template intro paragraph. Before I get into the analysis of today’s slate, I want to touch on the new chat app experiment I am doing. I started it early yesterday morning, hoping to get 100 people within the first month. We had 100 people within the first day. We were discussing injuries, talking lineups, and doing analysis in real time. I was able to answer questions immediately. It was a completely new experience, and I think it was an overwhelming success. In case you missed the article yesterday, I will repost what I wrote then, so that you can avail yourself of it. If you are interested, please send me a DM on reddit here and I will send you the invite link. There is another major change- a significant addition that should help you out, and help increase the amount of communication I can engage in (even more than here or twitter). Ever since someone told me about Slack a month or so ago, I have been looking into a chat app to provide more of a real-time ability to talk to people about the slate. Or discuss breaking news. Or answer questions if I can. I was going to do Slack, but it was too much of a clusterfuck for me. I can understand why it’s popular, but it’s just not as easy to manage as I want something like this to be. While I was looking around, a few of the people that helped start FanDuel got a hold of me and wanted me to try a new chat app called Flick. I downloaded it and gave it a go and I really like it (or I would either use something else, or just not do this yet). I will be able to chat in real time. I will be able to make new topics for everything and anything I want. So I can make a new chat every day for every slate. For MLB and NBA. I can regulate it so it’s invite only, so we won’t be harassed by trolls and people trying to give us bad information. All of this was very important to me, since I really believe in what I am doing and don’t want to hurt its quality in any way. Expanding to something I can’t control, where harrassment is possible and it’s too easy to lose things, just wasn’t going to work for me. So starting tomorrow, I am going to be crossposting everything I do here into Flick, in a new topic, where I can answer questions or just chat about various process issues. It will be faster and easier than messaging me here or on twitter (though, as an older dude, I may not be as good at it as I should be). So, if you are interested, I would download the Flick App and send me a DM here or on twitter and I will send you the invite link. I am excited to give this a try and I hope it helps all of you as much as I think it will. There is no limit to the amount of people invited. The only rule is treat everyone with love and respect. We are all there to help each other. End of discussion. If you can handle that, just ask for an invite and you’re in! Now to the slate at hand. The Daily Slate: This slate is going to be AWESOME. Let’s get right to it!! Situations to take advantage of (in no particular order):
Luka and Co. - Oh boy. The 29th-paced Mavs are taking on the 4th-paced Nets in what will be a huge pace up spot for them. The Nets give up the 8th most DKPPG and, even though the Mavs are 29th in pace, they give up the 14th most DKPPG, which should tell you how dreadfully bad their D actually is. This has the lowest total on the day, as of now, at 224 and I can’t imagine it going that low, especially with no one on the injury report. This Mavs team rises and falls on the shoulders of now-20-year-old Luka Doncic (9100). Dude is one of the most consistent producers nowadays, proficient in all aspects of the game, and able to get you a 3x2 as well as steals and blocks. He will be lined up against who gives a shit because the Nets don’t have anyone remotely qualified to stop Luka. He’s a 6’7” PG that none of the Nets guards will be able to line up with. Also, none of the Nets forwards. Really. Or anyone else in that arena. Or maybe state at that point, since the Knicks and Kings are in Sacramento. And even then… Also, Centers against the Nets. Who is the Center you want to play? The same underpriced dude we been counting on for a week plus- Powell (5200). He is, easily, one of the best plays on the day. I would expect ownership to reflect that, but, honestly, this may be the worst game on the slate, so who knows when I’m done with this where I think everyone will be ownership wise. One thing that I won’t doubt- Powell is gold, Jerry. GOLD! I am also gonna play the sweet hell out of Dirk (3200), as he keeps putting up his 25 minutes a night on his farewell tour, bottoming out at 5x. I also have another couple of riskier guys that may not get the stats you need to pay off, but who could both get you 10x if everything goes well - Hardaway (5000) and Brunson (3800).
Nuggets vs Spurs PICK EM- Oh Boy! Pick Em is the best thing we can see. If this games finishes the way Vegas thinks it will, we are going to get us some OT and oh boy do we want that. Obviously, that’s not something we can or should predict. But I like to explain it like this- if every game has an X% chance to go into overtime, the closer to pick em it is, the higher X goes. And I would like X to be as high as possible, generally. White (4900) is back to full health. If you doubt that, you don’t understand that he’s a big reason why Westbrook got 44 DKP in 33 minutes in their last game against the Spurs. White is a beast. If he is healthy, he is one of the best PG defenders in the game. So, if he is playing 30 minutes (and he should), he is drastically underpriced. It also means I have no interest in Murray (6100) who I have been off for awhile anyway. Harris (4000) moved back into the starting lineup and, as cold as he has been offensively, he is going to push for 30 minutes today and he is grossly underpriced for that. Harris’ presence also makes me like Murray, as well as Barton (5600) less. Millsap (6600) is the other fantastic defender that will be starting today. With Poeltl (4100) drawing the start at the 5, LMA (7700) will be pushed to the 4 into a direct matchup with Millsap. This is very bad for LMA and very, very good for Millsap, since LMA is one of the worst defenders in the NBA at his position. Jokic (10300) just put up 49.25 DKP in 22 minutes. THAT’S 2.24 DKPPM. I’m just saying here, he will be facing Poeltl for 20 minutes and then LMA for another 15. Which of those people is going to even come close to stopping him. The only thing that will stop him is if he fouls and they pull him. I saved the best on the Spurs for last here- Will Barton is the weak link on the Nuggets. They are going to line DeRozan (7700) against him as much as possible, and he will be able to take advantage of it. I will reiterate- No Jamal Murray tonight. Unless White is benched.
The Jazz - I wish I could just nail down a player to like but, given the 230+ total and the fact that the Pelicans are like the walking dead defensively, and the opposite of the walking dead in terms of pace I have a hard time not just telling you to go nuts here. I would caution that this game, in Utah, could blow out. Something to be cognizant of when planning your lineups. But it’s not like anyone here is in even close to a bad spot. NO is Worst in the NBA against SF so a sneaky first play to look at is Joe Ingles (5500) as someone who can get you exposure to this game, at a price that can pay off, in a position that you literally can’t improve upon if you are Ingles. He hasn’t been under 32.75 DKP since before the all-star break. In case that wasn’t enough! The Pels are also one of the worst teams against Centers so this should be a good game in which to target Gobert (7900). He has been colder lately, causing his price to fall from 8500 before the all-star break to 7900 now. He is still the player that can get you the 47.75 DKP he gave you 3 games ago against the horrible LAC Center Defense. And, as bad as they are, the Pels have been worse recently. Yeah. That bad. Jrue is actually the only good defender left on this team, and he always plays like he’s in the playoffs so, while I expect the field will be on Donovan (8300), I will pivot elsewhere. If Donovan winds up being unowned, I will take the chance on him without question. Rubio (5900) will get 30 minutes against Elfrid on the Shelfrid and he should make him question Himselfred when Rubio crosses him up the Twelfthred time. Jae (4200) will be someone I play until he’s up to 5k. He just gets too much run, regardless of if this game blows out (again, a serious risk)
LA vs LA - So, I mean, this game is going to be awesome. 5th and 7th teams in pace. 2nd and 10th most DKPPG given up. One of the worst teams against C/PG/PF vs the team Worst against C and 2nd worst against PG. This is going to be a bloodfest, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the 238 total I am currently looking at goes over 240 before the sun comes up. The spread is also only LAL -4.5, meaning we can count on everyone getting major run. The Lakers are fighting for a playoff berth. They have been sinking fast, down to 10th- 4.5 games behind the 8th seed. They need to win this. So, when that happens, you go all in. The Clippers are horribly bad against C and PF. You know who’s been starting there lately? Kuzma (6200) and LeBron (11200). You know who’s gonna get 35-40 minutes and be able to smash their value? Kuzma and Lebron. The Clippers are also horrible against PG. This makes me like both Rondo (5600), who let EVERYONE down BAD last game (thus making him less popular tonight), and Ingram (6600) who is getting some serious run at the point. This is going to be one of the rare games I think it is actually ok to play Kuzma AND Ingram together. I don’t plan on getting any cuter with this Laker team. These 4 are going to be where the bread is buttered. They are too cheap for a must win game, against this terrible Clippers team, who are deficient against their positions. Speaking of deficient defenses, the Lakers are worst in the NBA against Centers and 2nd worst against PG. This means that I will be looking at both PatBev (5200), who will get most of the guard duties, as well as LouWill (6800), who should be 8k here. He will shoot the ball 167 times tonight. It is going to be insane. If this game stays close, LouWill plays almost all of the 4th quarter, and takes almost all of the Clippers shots in the 4th as well. Talk about a late night hammer. I would also have some interest in Zubac (4600), though his price is too high, and I expect people to be on him for the revenge narrative BS, but I would have more interest in Montrezl (6300) who is also drastically underpriced for someone who should be able to get you 50 DKP in this matchup. I also want to keep pointing out that Shamet (4000) and JaMychal (3900) are underpriced for their minutes and production.
Situations to be careful of(in no particular order):
Knicks vs Kings - As much as I like the 232 total, and the bad Defenses squaring off, what I do not like is the fact Vegas already has SAC as -11.5. This tells me a couple of things- First, Jordan is almost certainly going to be out. I have seen reports he may sit out the entire 3 game road trip, and I don’t know if he was even with the Knicks last game. Second, Vegas recognizes how good the Kings are at home, as well as how bad the Knicks are. Last, the Kings are 9th in the West, meaning they need to get all the wins they can if they want a chance of catching the Clippers or Spurs. As far as the game itself goes, it’s a matchup between 2 teams with coaches that are unpredictable, like to spread the minutes around, and that may not need to play their starters more than 3 quarters… what’s not to like?? So where do we go? First, I am still going to be all over Mitch Rob (6400) on the Knicks side. As long as Jordan is out, I am going to be leaning on him. Especially in a huge pace up matchup against a terrible defensive team. If you missed it, Vonleh (4200) also got 28 minutes, at the expense of Ellenson, and put up almost 40 DKP. His 2nd game in a row over 30. He could definitely get run with Mitch Rob in this matchup. Yesterday I said that, when DSJ (6000) and Mudiay (4900) play, you kind of have to roll the dice about which one is going to get more run, and will get more minutes. I also said I generally would just pick the cheaper one at that point. Well Mudiay got 29 minutes. Surprisingly, though, Fizdale finally played the 2 next to each other cause DSJ also got 28 minutes. And, while I may not be no Alfred Einstone, I know that 29 + 28 is more than 48, so they didn’t just split minutes at PG this time. This may have been a function of how insanely small the Clippers play, so we shouldn’t make any rash decisions about it, but it’s possible both start getting run together. I would still go cheaper, though. I also pointed out how the Knicks are limiting Knox severely in order to make sure Dotson (4500) and Trier (4300) get a bunch of run. Dotson got 29 min and 27.25 DKP. Trier got 25 min and 23.25 DKP. Knox got 23 min and 11.25 DKP. Don’t be a sucker and make sure you don’t play Knox. He is a massive, as they say, -EV play. Don’t make that mistake, given what you know. On the Kings Side, I don’t know if Fox (7500) or Hield (7000) will need to get enough run here to make those prices worthwhile. WCS (5800) just saw his price come up 1300 in one game. But don’t be surprised if he bombs here. Vonleh is a really, really good defender. Giles (4100) saw no minutes increase with Bagley out, but his price rose enough that he’s tougher to pay for. Barnes (5100) may be the best play. He can get you 40 minutes if this winds up staying close. He will get 10+ shots, and is one of the main beneficiaries with Bagley out, from a minutes perspective. Bogdanovic (5600) is also underpriced, and should see some run if this game blows out.
The Nets: A Special Deeper Look Hold onto your hats. I am going to take a LOT of time here. If I was a lazy asshole who didn’t actually care about the quality of my analysis, I could just take a default here - Mavs have been awful against PG, C, and 3s. So throw the Nets in the “situations to take advantage of” section and tell everyone, “Play D Lo (8000), Allen (4900), and Harris (4400).” But is that actually good analysis, or is it the mark of someone who’s being really lazy and trying to take the easy way out? I would say, emphatically, the latter. So much so I will be looking at what people have to say about this game to determine how much stock I give their analysis for the rest of this season. So, let’s break this down, cause this shit has been really tricky the last couple of games. Let’s start 2 games ago, when Dinwiddie came back- Nets/Hornets. Nets started D Lo, LeVert, Harris, Treveon Graham, and Jarrett Allen (as they have been). The game got out of hand towards the middle of the 3rd quarter, although they started the half down almost 20. So we can look at the minutes and the rotations and see what and who matters now. LeVert and Treveon played about 6 minutes and gave way to Crabbe and Kurucs. One minute later, the other 3 starters gave way to Dinwiddie, Carroll, and Ed Davis. They closed out the quarter. It is worth noting at this point Dinwiddie already has 2 fouls, which might impact the rotation going into the 2nd. At the start of the 2nd quarter, Kurucs and Dinwiddie were replaced by D Lo and LeVert. Kurucs will not see the court again until the game is out of hand. After 4 minutes, Crabbe is replaced by Harris, who will stay in the rest of the half. A couple of minutes later, Davis comes out for Allen, who stays in the rest of the half. A couple of minutes later, Russell is replaced by Dinwiddie, who will stay in until there’s about 30 seconds left in the half when he draws his 3rd foul and Napier gets his first court time. Another 30 seconds after D Lo comes out, LeVert is replaced by Crabbe who, in 90 seconds, draws his 2nd and 3rd foul, forcing him to be pulled for a DeMarre Carroll who, 30 seconds earlier, had been taken out for Treveon Graham. It is also worth noting that, as D Lo and LeVert come out of the game, the Hornets go on a 23-5 run, ending the half with a 68-50 lead. So, at the half, the Nets are now down almost 20. Allen has played 14 minutes. D Lo played 14 minutes. LeVert is at 13. Joe Harris is at almost 16, but that may be affected by the foul trouble Crabbe and Dinwiddie were in. Treveon Graham got 10, but who cares. Dinwiddie got about 10, but had foul trouble. Crabbe had 11, but had foul trouble. DeMarre had 15, but, again, he played extra due to other player’s foul trouble. Kurucs had 5:42 and that was it. Ed Davis played 10. Worth noting that RHJ didn’t see the floor in the first half at all. If you multiply those by 2, that’s about what you are going to expect for a full game, barring adjusting for foul trouble. In the second half, the Nets start with their first half rotation for about the same amount of time. And, again, LeVert comes out for Crabbe, Treveon for Kurucs, D Lo for Dinwiddie, Harris for Crabbe but, this time, Jarrett Allen is replaced by RHJ. The game is still completely out of hand, and the Hornets have pushed their lead to 21 points, the game’s high point. These backups, though, fight and claw their way back against the Hornets backups. From the point those 5 took the floor until the 8:49 mark in the 4th, the Nets worked on decreasing the lead from 21 to 9. They brought D Lo back in for Dinwiddie and then Harris for DeMarre, and Allen for RHJ. When they brought Allen in, a couple minutes after they brought D Lo back in, they also brought Dinwiddie back in for Kurucks. This gave the Nets a lineup of Allen, D Lo, Harris, Crabbe, Dinwiddie. Unfortunately, in this time the Hornets went on a 10-3 run, bringing the game out of reach again. So the Nets once again subbed in RHJ for Allen, Kurucs for Harris, Carroll for Crabbe, and Napier for D Lo over the next stretch of minutes. All in all, when you dive into it, it looks like, from this game, RHJ is only getting blow out run now. Davis is only playing when there isn’t blow out run. Kurucs will get spotty minutes in close games, and blow out run. D Lo is gonna get less than 30 minutes now, with Levert getting close to 24 (less due to blowout) and Dinwiddie working his way into 24 minutes immediately. With Harris playing 28 minutes, there’s just too many bodies here, as you can see from this one game. Napier seems to only get in now if people are in foul trouble or the game is out of hand. Carroll will get a bunch of minutes no matter what. He seems to be one of the safer bets to get any kind of run. Ok. One game down. Let’s look at the next game, another blowout, this time between the Heat and the Nets. This game started the same way - Harris, D Lo, Treveon, Allen, and LeVert. Treveon and LeVert get 6 minutes before ceding to Kurucs and Crabbe. Harris, D Lo, and Allen play about 7:30 before giving way to Killer D’s (there should be a sarcasm font) DeMarre, Dinwiddie, and Davis. Those 5 closed out the half. At the start of the 2nd half, the Nets switched Dinwiddie and Crabbe out for D Lo and Levert. So, the 5 on the floor for the 1st 4 minutes of the 2nd quarter are DeMarre, Davis, Kurucs, D Lo, and LeVert. Four minutes in, Kurucs gives way to Harris, who stays in the rest of the half. Harris and the other 4 are on the court together for about 2:30 when Davis and LeVert give way to Allen and Dinwiddie, who play the rest of the half. After another minute and a half, D Lo and DeMarre yield to Kurucs and Crabbe. So, at the half, the Nets are only down 10. They have managed to keep this game close the whole time, with the Heat going on a late 5-0 run, increasing the lead from 5 to a game-high 10. Harris has 15:30 or so in the first half. D Lo has about 15 minutes. LeVert had about 12:30. Allen got about 13 minutes. Treveon got his initial 6 minutes and didn’t see the court again. Crabbe got 10 minutes. Kurucs got 12 minutes. Ed Davis got about 11. DeMarre got a little over 12. And Dinwiddie got 10. Once again, RHJ didn’t see the court in the first half. Multiplying this by 2 should be a more reasonable approximation of how many minutes people would get in a full, competitive game. But, again, it would be better to just see some full, competitive games. The 2nd half started as the 1st half did with the same 5. After about 5 minutes, the Heat lead had increased their lead from 10 points at the half to 13 points at this point. At this point, Treveon, Allen, and LeVert, are replaced by DeMarre, Davis, and Crabbe. After another 30 seconds or so, D Lo is pulled out for Dinwiddie. At this point, the Heat had already started on a 12-2 run which would push the lead to 23, and into firm blow out status. A minute after D Lo came out, the Nets replaced Harris with Kurucs. Around this time, Ed Davis got his 3rd foul and was replaced by JARED DUDLEY until the end of the 3rd quarter, on the court with DeMarre, Dinwiddie, Kurucs, and Crabbe. The 4th quarter starts with the Nets down 20. This is one of the interesting things- They started the quarter by replacing almost the entire lineup. Dudley stayed in, of course, but, with Dudley, you had RHJ, making his first appearance, Harris, D Lo, and LeVert. The Heat went on a 13-5 run in the first 3 minutes of the quarter, so D Lo was pulled out after 2:30 for Crabbe and, 30 seconds later, Dudley and Harris came out for Dinwiddie and Kurucs. The lineup stayed this was until the Heat went on another 6-0 run, forcing the coach to trade out Crabbe for Treveon. And that was it. RHJ played all 12 minutes. LeVert played all 12 minutes. It was as if, the blow out was so bad, the coach recognized that they should just try to continue to stretch out LeVert and Dinwiddie and they did. At the end of that game, Harris got 26 min, D Lo got 23, LeVert got 29, Allen got 18, Treveon got 15, Crabbe got 22, Kurucs got 27, Davis got 14, Dinwiddie got 25 or so, DeMarre got 19, Dudley got 7 and RHJ got just the 12 minutes in the 4th quarter. So, now that it is all said and done, what can both games tell us?
That D Lo (8000), LeVert (5300), and Dinwiddie (5000) are going to be fighting heavily for minutes. It looks like, if everything goes perfectly, D Lo could get you about 26-30 minutes a game and Dinwiddie and LeVert getting 25ish each themselves, depending on how much time the coach wants to put LeVert at SF. In those 2 games, D Lo averaged 1.16 DKPPM for those 2 games. That means, if he gets 30 minutes, he will project to get 35 or so DKP. That’s not remotely close enough to value here to think he’s a good play by any stretch. Dinwiddie has gotten about 0.88 DKPPM in those 2 games. If he gets 25 minutes, that is about 22 DKP. Again, that’s a hard sell. LeVert got us 0.96 DKPPM which, again, if you give him 25 minutes, comes to just over 24 DKP. Not terrible for the price, but not someone we are going to flip out over, especially considering he will only put up 5 threes a game, where Dinwiddie could get 10 or so.
That Joe Harris (4400) is a great play. Harris seems to be one of the safest bets to push about 28-30 minutes, regardless of the presence of Levert, Dinwiddie, Kurucs, and Crabbe. Over the last couple games, he has put up 0.85 DKPPG which, if you give him 30 minutes, comes out to about 25.5 DKP. Which actually IS great for that price. Over his last 5, he has gotten about 0.8 DKPPG which, again, is about 24 DKP which, at 4400 is good enough for me. Especially given how bad the Mavs are against 3s and how much Harris loves to shoot them (he did beat Steph Curry for the 3 point contest crown, after all).
That DeMarre Carroll (3700) is also greatly undervalued on DK. While he doesn’t have the positional advantage of other players, he still puts up a consistently decent DKPPM, especially recently. Over the last 2, he has 1.03 DKPPM. He would be able to pay off his salary if he just played 20 minutes at that rate. He’s at 0.86 DKPPG over his last 5. He would only need 21.5 minutes to pay that off. If he can get one of his 25-30 minute games, he could crush that salary. With Treveon DOUBTFUL, He should be in line for extra run.
That Crabbe (3300) is going to get his 23-25 minutes every game as well. Last game he put up 9 three pointers and only hit 1. If he were to get hot at that minute projection, he would demolish 3300. He is risky, given how cold he’s been lately. But he was someone priced 4200 a week and a half ago. And, again, the Mavs are really, really, really bad against 3s lately.
That Kurucs (3200) is also somewhat too random to be trusted. But his randomness is both how many minutes he plays and how he produced. It is a major risk, especially in a 7 game slate, but in any slate, to even consider him
Napier, Treveon, and Dudley are unplayable as of right now
The Nets Center position is a cluster fuck. Which is incredibly unfortunate, given how bad the Mavs have been since they traded Jordan. Allen (4900) could get you 18 minutes today or he could get you 28. Is RHJ (3000) only getting blow out run now intentionally? Or is he going to find his way into the 2nd half rotation regardless? And how will that affect Allen and his normal backup Ed Davis (3300)? When we see who is starting at PF tomorrow (hopefully not RHJ), we can look further into this. But as of right now, as bad as the Mavs are against PG and C, it’s too clustered to trust the big names. But if you wanna attack them on the perimeter, you have some great options here.
Situations to monitor:
John Collins QUESTIONABLE - The Heat are a slow, defensive team that can really only be attacked at the PF spot. That is going to change the more run Dragic gets at PF instead of Justise but, as of now, it is how it is. With Trae (9300) priced up that high, it is understandable to be skittish of him, just make sure you have him in your pool if you play MME. After getting ejected last game, he should be in line for heavy minutes tonight. If Collins is out, especially, we can count on a solid game for him, regardless of matchup. If Collins (7100) can play, he is going to be drastically underpriced here. Again, it’s not the best of team matchups, but, in terms of individual matchups, he is going to be able to eat. If Collins is out, I will also love getting on Len (4000) and Poythress (3400) again for their prices. The one thing of note- Dedmon (6400) would be moved to PF in the case Collins misses and Len starts next to him which would be an amazing matchup for him, as it would for Collins, at an even better price.
Whiteside QUESTIONABLE, Dragic QUESTIONABLE - Given how fast the Hawks are, and how horrible their D is, this news is really substantial. Everyone on this team is in play today, so the less players they have available, the better for us. Hopefully we are told of their status after morning shootaround, but if not, this game is the first to tip off so we shouldn’t have too big a problem planning for every eventuality. If Whiteside and Dragic play, I would expect them to be limited so I would have no interest in them. They would also make Bam and Justise slightly less appealing. If both/either miss, Bam (5600) and Justise (5700) become exceptional plays, though, for the money, I would much rather take the stab on Wade (5000). Either way, I expect Olynyk (5300) to get heavy minutes, no matter what, and to crush it today. He’s another one of my favorite plays on the slate.
Someone sitting for the Bucks - Ok. So, Vegas totals can tell us a lot. They can also tell us a lot when they aren’t there. Especially when midnight approaches on the day of a game, and there is no spread out for what should be an obvious drubbing. This leads me to believe that there is some inside information (such as Giannis not getting on the plane to Phoenix) that a Vegas insider, who is paid to scout that kind of thing, would know. But that we wouldn’t have access to yet. Tomorrow morning, Bledsoe or Middleton or Giannis or some combo of the 3 will be declared out and resting because, honestly, why else wouldn’t this game have a 240 total with a MIL -14 spread already. Even in Phoenix. So, unfortunately, we are going to have to wait and see what the hell is going to happen. We can assume that Vegas is just not putting out a total to this game for no reason, and everyone will play, but that’s foolish. I will do it anyway, though, cause who said I didn’t help everyone equally? This game is going to blow out, so I can’t play any of the big priced players (assuming everyone is in). The most expensive I would go is Oubre (5900) who would get backup/blowout run. I would also expect Jackson (4600) to get extra run in that case, making him an intriguing play. Pat Con (3400) is a wonderful punt again at that price, considering he has been getting solid minutes, even when everyone is healthy, and backup run. Just be aware DK is wrong and Brogdon is not on the injury report. This also makes folks like Holmes (3400) and Melton (3100) interesting punts, though I will have a hard time going there. And please don’t ask me about the Isaiah Canaan (3200) revenge narrative unless half the Bucks are out.
Brow QUESTIONABLE - So, Brow came down with an illness according to reports. While there is a chance he would play, why even make him travel to Utah with the team when he’s sick, if they don’t want to play him anyway. So I imagine we are going to find out early that he’s out, although who knows at this point. He’s not someone I will consider playing if he plays, but if he misses the effects are significant. First, as I have often point out, as good as the Jazz are defensively, across the board (for the most part), and as good Gobert is as a defender (#1 in DRPM among Centers), the Jazz are really bad at defending against Centers. That would mean I would have a ton of interest in, first, Diallo (4100), who would get a ton of minutes, including blow out run, at the C spot. I mean, if Brow misses, I would lock him in to 100%. Especially with the red “1st” next to his name on DK which will make people get off him. But he is being shown as a PF, not as a C (which is a green “26th”). That’s going to lower his ownership quite a bit, which is great for us. The Jazz are best against PFs, so I would have a hard time paying up for Randle (8200), but you can’t argue with the fact he could get you 50 DKP. I would most likely let him kill me then play him and have one of so many things go wrong. Jrue (7600) is someone, as I pointed out last game, that is being underowned, underpriced, and underprojected based on faulty information. We were told he would be limited to 28-30 minutes. Since then, the lowest he has been has been 31 and that was in a total blowout. And he still got 43.25 DKP. Defenses haven’t been able to stop him from getting you 45-50 DKP lately, and, at that price, I will sign up for that all day, every day. Especially at the low ownership cause people think he’s going to be limited. Lastly, Elf (5700) is, again, is too cheap for getting anywhere from 32-36 minutes he’s been getting. His last 2 games were his worst, at 33.5 and 30.75 DKP, and, in both of those, he was 1 basket from a 2x2. I don’t think Elf is necessarily gonna get you 50 here (though he certainly has the ability to get you a triple double, at any point, and 50 DKP), but I do think that he should be closer to 7k right now, and we need to take advantage of that pricing inaccuracy as much as we can.
Alright. Running out of characters. Outro Short. Good Luck. Love you all!
bathrobeDFS - Daily Analysis for March 6th and Review of March 5th
Hello, everyone! bathrobeDFS here with your daily basketball article. First, I will breakdown my lineup for yesterday’s main slate. Then I will go over tonight’s slate from the perspective of a one lineup player on Draftkings. If you have any additional questions or want to see guaranteed updates in regards to breaking news- I provide additional updates, information, and stats on my twitter @bathrobeDFS. Feel free to throw me a follow cause it’s much easier and more timely to provide updates over that medium. I also have a Venmo and Patreon for those that wanna help Operation: Get Me A Laptop. It also should go without saying, this is just a preliminary analysis of the slate: everything can change throughout the day, so make sure you are staying on top of any and all injury news and change your lineups accordingly! I am always available to help with any questions there, as well, even if I can’t do a second article. Let’s get started with the Review! Yesterday In Review: My Lineup- -
Analysis- Ugh. So, PG13 and all of that kind of messed me up, as I’m sure it messed all of you up as well. With Ross out, I started my lineup with Vuc and Isaac, and with the Sixers having no Centers, I locked in Amir and Scott to run it back. I also had Bradley as my lock. This left me 3 spots lett. With PG13 out, initially, I had Schroder, with Harden (who I liked more with no Faried) and LaVine. With PG13 in, I didn’t want to play Schroder anymore. Unfortunately, the only person in the same price range was Dray so I had to pivot to him, even though it meant eating chalk and I wasn’t a big fan of him today. Join us on Flick! For the rest of this week, I want to give people a chance to see this. After that, I will just make it a mention in the template intro paragraph. Before I get into the analysis of today’s slate, I want to touch on the new chat app experiment I am doing. I started it early yesterday morning, hoping to get 100 people within the first month. We had 100 people within the first day. We were discussing injuries, talking lineups, and doing analysis in real time. I was able to answer questions immediately. It was a completely new experience, and I think it was an overwhelming success. In case you missed the article yesterday, I will repost what I wrote then, so that you can avail yourself of it. If you are interested, please send me a DM on reddit here and I will send you the invite link. There is another major change- a significant addition that should help you out, and help increase the amount of communication I can engage in (even more than here or twitter). Ever since someone told me about Slack a month or so ago, I have been looking into a chat app to provide more of a real-time ability to talk to people about the slate. Or discuss breaking news. Or answer questions if I can. I was going to do Slack, but it was too much of a clusterfuck for me. I can understand why it’s popular, but it’s just not as easy to manage as I want something like this to be. While I was looking around, a few of the people that helped start FanDuel got a hold of me and wanted me to try a new chat app called Flick. I downloaded it and gave it a go and I really like it (or I would either use something else, or just not do this yet). I will be able to chat in real time. I will be able to make new topics for everything and anything I want. So I can make a new chat every day for every slate. For MLB and NBA. I can regulate it so it’s invite only, so we won’t be harassed by trolls and people trying to give us bad information. All of this was very important to me, since I really believe in what I am doing and don’t want to hurt its quality in any way. Expanding to something I can’t control, where harrassment is possible and it’s too easy to lose things, just wasn’t going to work for me. So starting tomorrow, I am going to be crossposting everything I do here into Flick, in a new topic, where I can answer questions or just chat about various process issues. It will be faster and easier than messaging me here or on twitter (though, as an older dude, I may not be as good at it as I should be). So, if you are interested, I would download the Flick App and send me a DM here or on twitter and I will send you the invite link. I am excited to give this a try and I hope it helps all of you as much as I think it will. There is no limit to the amount of people invited. The only rule is treat everyone with love and respect. We are all there to help each other. End of discussion. If you can handle that, just ask for an invite and you’re in! Now to the slate at hand. I will also add, they put out an update that really fixed the lag problem. So if you were having trouble connecting, try getting the newest version and trying again! The Daily Slate: Well, this is unfortunate. A 10 game slate today, which is a couple too many- where luck starts to creep in far too much, followed by a 2 game slate on Thursday. I wish they had just made it 8 and 4, but life isn’t what you want. Situations to take advantage of (in no particular order):
Wolves - There are 2 places I’m gonna go here, and I will go there happily. First, KAT (10800) has been playing out of his mind lately. He isn’t going to be stopped by Drummond, who is not a good defender. Seriously, he has been on a tear. We’re talking 40 DKP in the first half the last couple of games before he took his foot off the throttle (is that a thing?). Well, in this game DET is favored by 5.5 points (which I think has to be an error), so KAT is gonna have to go nuts. He is also someone who isn’t affected in the slightest by back-to-back, from a minutes or a production standpoint. The 2nd place I will go, happily, is Teague (5300) who is fresh of a fantastic game against a much better OKC defense. Now he gets a matchup against the walking corpse of Reggie Jackson’s defense. Sign me up twice, thank you very much.
Blake - Just glancing over the slate, I can tell you that Blake (8600) is going to wind up being one of my favorite plays, assuming the status quo remains and the MIN starters stay the same. Saric is so bad at defense that the Wolves went from one of the teams best in the NBA against PF to worse than average. Even if Saric only gets 25 minutes, those are 25 minutes Blake will be able to get 1.5 PPM. God knows the Wolves aren’t a defensively stacked team- they are 22nd in pace, but give up the 11th most DKPPG, so it’s not like Blake is the only one with a good matchup, but he is the one with the BEST matchup. Also, even though MIN is 22nd in pace, DET is 30th, so this is still a pace up spot. Blake is 12th in the NBA in usage, and he has the best matchup. I can only connect so many dots. With Zaza doubtful, I also think Thon Maker (3100), who isn’t on the Bucks anymore, is in line to get around 18 minutes and could get you a good 20 DKP with that time.
Mavs - The Mavs are 29th in pace, so there is only one team recently that has been playing slower, the Pistons. The Wizards are 6th in pace and, as good as that is, it’s not as good as the fact the Wizards give up the 3rd most DKPPG. Everyone on this team is in play, but moreso the usual suspects. After 2 disappointing games due to blow outs, Doncic (9100) has seen his price come down from near 10k, where it should be. While, who knows, maybe the Wizards also beat the Mavs by 30, I would expect Doncic to get back to the 50-60 DKP 3x2 player he had been up until now. I will make a note- it is possible he’s just tired at this point in the season. He is a kid, not used to this long a season after all. But that’s not something I am considering yet, just something I am going to keep in mind over the next stretch of games. The Wizards are also awful against C without Howard, as I’ve been pointing out for months now, so Powell (5900), who is still underpriced, is still an amazing play. He may be chalk so, in that case I may look elsewhere, but the spot itself is fantastic. And Powell’s production has been pretty damn great too. If the game doesn’t blow out, Brunson (3800) could get you 25-30DKP in his minutes, though it’s not a slam dunk by any means. Also, Dirk (3300) continues his 24 minute-a-game farewell tour, and his price and ownership haven’t adjusted for that production yet. I’ll just close with the fact this game has a 231.5 total as of right now and, in what I imagine is another error, Washington are 5.5 point favorites. I can’t imagine that sits well with this Dallas squad, especially considering just how bad the Wizards are.
Non-Beal Wizards - Which is not to say that Beal (9800) himself is out of play. Cause he could have a good game. But my god. 9800. The things I like here though are plentiful. First, the Mavs have been just awful against PGs. While he hasn’t been producing the 50DKP ceiling games we would want lately, it doesn’t mean Sato (5200) doesn’t have them. Just because he hasn’t gotten one of those 3x2 in awhile doesn’t mean he can’t (though, let’s be honest, with Portis and those guys here, it’s a lot less likely). I DO expect him to be able to get the 10 assists and a 2x2 today, and he should be able to get you a 6x here, if not more. Speaking of Portis (6000), the Mavs have been awful against Centers since they traded Jordan away. While he is also one of the worst defenders in the game (yay Powell), he is also a high usage player who can quickly rack up the DKP. And, against Powell, he should really, really be able to do that. This means that I also LOVE Bryant (4300) today. I wouldn’t play both together, but I would love to have one of the two in my lineup today. The last play I would consider is Jabari (5100) who has two 37 DKP games in his last 3, and, again, this is a weaker Mavs team than people think, and a lot weaker than the red 9th Jabari has next to his name. Ariza finally got under 30 minutes last game, as Operation: Run Trevor Ariza to the Ground may be nearing an end, but that also means that Jabari should be seeing his increase in minutes made more permanent.
Spurs - I would normally just put this whole game here but, considering the injury news for the Hawks, I will just talk about the Spurs and the game in general. First up, the Spurs are a mid-paced team and the Hawks are one of the fastest teams in the NBA (they had been 1st most of the year before dropping off lately). The Spurs give up 240.8 DKPPG, which is the 6th most in the NBA. The Hawks give up 242.8 DKPPG, the 4th most in the NBA. On top of that, the Hawks are nearly the worst in the NBA against PG, SG, SF AND PF. It’s pretty insane. And the reason that C isn’t also there is due to Dedmon, who is DOUBTFUL. So what I’m trying to say is I may only play 3 players from the Spurs tomorrow, maybe. DeRozan (8200) and LMA (7600) are awesome, can both exceed value, and are just far, far, far too cheap for this matchup, the pace up spot, the lack of D, etc. Derrick White (5400) is back to normal, and playing his normal amount of minutes. He is going to be lined up against Trae Young, the worst defender in the NBA. Not just against PG. Period. Like 487th out of 487. He is also drastically underpriced. The only thing we need to concern ourselves with here is that Poeltl is QUESTIONABLE. If he plays, I assume he starts and he’s a fine punt at 4300. If he misses, I wouldn’t be surprised if they let Gay (6000) start again, at which point he would become an interesting play, though his price keeps rising even though he’s on the bench. I would be even less surprised if they let Bertans (3300) start, and continue to have Gay come off the bench. Needless to say, whoever starts should get serious consideration here. Belinelli (3400) and Forbes (4000) are also in play. I mean, I wasn’t even kidding. Everyone here is in play. I don’t know if I can go to 4. And I will prioritize DeRozan, LMA, and White, but we have to see what happens with Poeltl before we make any real decisions.
Kevin Love - Center against the Nets. BK 4th in pace. Don’t play D. Can’t stop even bad Centers, much less one who has been showing a floor of 40 DKP lately. Tristan and Zizic are still OUT. BK gives up 8th most DK PPG. Love (7500) is 11th in the NBA in usage. Should get around 30 minutes. Barring injury or foul trouble, there is just no way this doesn’t wind up paying off. I would also be a huge fan of playing Clarkson (5300) in this spot. He is underrated, like a 2nd rate LouWill- someone who comes off the bench, commands almost all of the usage, and has a ceiling game every once in awhile against a team like the Nets.
Injured Sixers - Again, the Sixers are going to be super thin tonight. They wound up playing 9 people last night. Patton got 9 minutes, so he doesn’t matter for our purposes. TJ McConnell got 17 minutes and is in a worse matchup tonight. Butler has been running a lot of point in preparation for the playoffs, when him and Simmons will handle almost all of the PG duties, making TJ superfluous. The rest of the Sixers are in play. So let’s get Jon Simmons (3000) out of the way. He played 26 minutes, which is good. He put up 7 shots, which is good. But he still didn’t even get to value tonight, which is not. You can take a chance, if you really need to, but it’s a 10 game slate. And I’m sure a ton more value is going to open up for us to take advantage of. Embiid and Boban will definitely be out, and Bolden (4500), who is, at best, questionable with an illness. If he plays, he is probably going to get 30 minutes. If he misses, you gotta take another shot on Amir (3100). Mike Scott (4500) is starting to get far too expensive, even for getting 30 minutes. I can’t take that chance at that price. Simmons (8900) is going to eat, even though Dunn is a decent defender. He will get spread around, like I said yesterday, guaranteeing his 2x2 with rebounds, while not eliminating his chance to get the 10 assists for a 3x2 (he got 8 last night). Harris (7700) is probably my favorite play. He’s gonna get a bunch of rebounds himself, and he has been getting a ton of embiid’s usage. Far more than Butler, who I think will be too concerned with trying to stop LaVine and Otto to play enough offense (which he now CAN do). My 2nd favorite play is Redick (4900), fresh off a hot shooting night. But that has nothing to do with it. What it has to do with is the fact he should be lined up against LaVine, most likely, who is awful. And the Bulls, as a whole, are also awful against the perimeter. So go Redick go!.
Markkanen - With the effect Jimmy Butler and Simmons are going to have against Dunn, LaVine, and Porter all game, my favorite play on this Bulls team is Lauri (8000), who will be matched up, the entire game, against Tobias, Amir, Mike Scott, and Bolden (if he plays). So, basically, he should go back to getting 50 DKP and his price just fell 600 for no good reason. For the same reason I love Lauri today, I will also be all over RoLo (5000). It is going to be fun to watch him manhandle whoever the Sixers try to put at the 5 to deal with him. This is a great pace up spot for the Bulls team. And, while people might worry about blow out, the 227.5 O/U is backed up by a nice close spread of PHI -5.
Gobert - These teams met up a couple nights ago and I’m gonna tell you what I told you then - I am worried about playing Donovan because Jrue will be on him and he always still plays like he really cares on both ends of the court. I said, if you are going to play anyone, focus, first, on Gobert (8100). He wound up putting up almost 50 DKP. And, given how bad NO is against C, he should be able to do it again at FAR, FAR too low ownership. Especially on a 10 game slate. Even though Brow is a decent defender, he doesn’t really give a shit right now, and he only plays 20 minutes anyway. I also said the sneakiest play was Ingles (5900), since NO is weakest in the NBA against SF. He got 11 assists, which is amazing, but only got 8 points. He only shot the ball 7 times. He should do much, much better today, I would expect. And I will go right back to the well. I also recommended Rubio (5900), but he wound up shooting 1-8, which is not going to happen again (probably), and he only played 26 minutes, which, truthfully, MAY happen again. But, if he gets 30+, he should easily clear value today. My 2nd most owned player on the Jazz, after Gobert, was Jae (4700), who got 35 DKP in this matchup and I would expect him to do that again. Sure his price went up 500. But that’s not enough. I should also point out Korver (3400) got 29 minutes and 29 DKP. I don’t expect that again, but it might be a real change in minutes that we should pay attention to (and may be smart to take advantage of, before the field catches wind of it)
Randle… and Brow??? I mean, ok. So. I don’t want to play him. I really don’t. But, as I keep saying over and over and over again, the Jazz are easiest to attack by Centers. There is a reason that Brow put up 46.75 DKP in 22 minutes, getting 15p and 11r with 3 steals and 3 blocks. It wasn’t just cause he’s a freak of nature and insanely talented, it’s cause Utah sucks against Centers, and, even in those 22 minutes he gets, he can do it again today. The only questions are 1- does he actually play (who knows) and 2- what is his ownership going to be. The same reason I would play Brow, I would also be all over Randle (8400) who is going to get 26-28 minutes at Center and put up more than 50 DKP last game in the same exact position. Elf (5400) and Jrue (7800) are both underpriced, but I like those other 2 more. Especially Randle.
The Suns - The Suns are taking on the Knicks for worst team in the NBA. I mean that very literally in this scenario, as the Knicks are 13-51 and the Suns are 14-51, meaning the Knicks are the Worst Team in the NBA by 0.5 games. If the Knicks win, the Suns will have a 0.5 game “lead”. If the Suns win, they will have a 3 game win streak and, I’m pretty sure the universe will fold in on itself (so root for the Knicks, I guess. Unless you are a nihilist). I don’t think the Suns care that much, as evidenced by the fact they swept the season series from the Bucks. Against this dumpster fire of a Knicks team, I will take whoever I want. Booker (8100) is awesome, and is top 10 in the NBA in usage. Ayton (7400) draws a difficult matchup against Vonleh, so I think I’d look elsewhere. Oubre (6200) is fantastic though, as the 2nd option on this team. He has 50 DKP+ upside, and this game is one where he will matched up against Knox who is the worst defensive SF in the game. Lastly, Tyler Johnson (5200) will get 34 minutes if he can avoid foul trouble and there is no way he doesn’t get you 30 DKP there.
Celtics vs Kings PICK EM YAY! Pick Em!! Might favorite thing! I don’t understand WHY it’s a pick em. The Celtics just beat the Warriors at the Oracle by more than 30 points. They are gonna tie the Kings? I mean, they’ll probably lose by 30 cause that’s the way the NBA has gone lately. But man, it’s a hell of a ride, huh? So, the Kings are 2nd in pace, meaning the Celtics are in a fantastic pace up spot here. The Kings are also mediocre defensively, though they have been improving on the season. As I often point out- when a team is 2nd in pace, but 11th in the amount of DKPPG they give up, they are doing something right defensively. That won’t stop me from being all over Kyrie (9300) here, just know that Fox has entered the top 10 for PGs in DRPM. So there is definitely a path to fading him if he winds up the chalk. You can also take a shot on Horford (6400), since the Kings are a big team and he’ll be needed to play a larger allotment of minutes. They are also weakest against the C position. That’s really it for me on Boston. I just can’t chance those Hayward (3900) points, as cheap as he is. Though, let’s be Frank, if I told you I would bet you a million dollars that Kyrie rests tomorrow, you wouldn’t take it. Cause you just don’t know. On the other side, I worry about playing anyone against the defense of Marcus Smart, but Hield (7200) is on fire lately. When someone can’t miss a shot, even a good defender won’t stop them. Check to see what his ownership is tomorrow and, if he’s as low as I expect, make sure you get some shares. He’s risky for GPP in one lineup, but there is no reason you can’t go there, especially if you want to go with Kyrie. I also LOVE Barnes (5100) who gets matched up against Morris, the only real weak link on this Celtics team. He will get 40 minutes if this game stays close, and his usage and peripheral stats are good enough he will absolutely pay that off if he does.
Situations to be careful of(in no particular order):
Heat vs Hornets - What should be the worst game on the slate, for a number of reasons. The lowest total, at 219. That’s not bad at all, but, it is still the lowest out of 10 games, which is notable. I should note, the spread is CHA -3, so it’s basically a neutral game. But it is between the 24th and 25th teams in pace. The Heat give up the 24th most DKPPG and the Hornets, the 20th. The Hornets want to attack, ideally, with the PG and C, now, but that’s where the Heat are strongest. The Heat spread everything out, and the Hornets are mediocre against everything, meaning there is no real advantage. The only place I would go here is to either Lamb (5200) or, if you are more desperate, Batum (5300). You could also take a chance on Wade (5500) here, with Dragic out, but on a 10 game slate there are so many better places to go.
Nets - If you didn’t read the 4000 or so words I wrote about the Nets the other day, I would strongly recommend you do it because it shows you just why you need to be careful of this Nets team. On top of that, they are going against a Cavs team that is 28th in pace. I know that Sexton is a terrible defender. And Clarkson is even worse. So I would normally love to play D Lo (7900), but his price is just too high for the not 30 minutes he’s going to get. LeVert (5400) and Dinwiddie (5300) should also get 25+ minutes and, at those prices, I would get all over them. I don’t think they have the ceiling you may want in a GPP, but they are both surely able to get you 40 DKP in this matchup against the Cavs, especially considering they are blow out proof- they are going to get their minutes because they need to get them. Treveon Graham is DOUBTFUL, so I would be fine taking a stab on Kurucs (3500) again, but I would be much more a fan of DeMarre (3900). Joe Harris (4300) isn’t someone I particularly LIKE tonight, but he is someone who IS just far too cheap tonight.
Situations to monitor:
Collins QUESTIONABLE, Dedmon DOUBTFUL - So, let’s assume Dedmon misses cause that’s normally what happens when someone is Doubtful. Len (4500) becomes the play of the day. 100%. And you know what? Because of that horrorshow of a performance he had last game, and how many people he absolutely crushed, his ownership is going to be a fraction of what it should be. He would be the only C on the roster (Hello, LMA). He should get significant run. The real fun comes with Collins, who is already listed as a game time decision. This game goes off at 730, so we SHOULD know before lock, but I don’t know for sure. I will say this- If you miss 3 games dealing with flu-like symptoms, you probably lost some weight and are still feeling weak. So, I would expect him to be limited and, even if he is “all systems go”, I would be suspect. The Hawks don’t have to play again until Saturday, so they might just let him rest and get his strength back up. If he does wind up missing, we are going to see Poythress (3400) and Carter (3400) get some serious, serious minutes against a position at which SA can be beaten. Even if Collins plays, these guys are going to have to get some serious minutes and, at those prices, I will have to take a chance there. As much as I love Trae (8800) in general, I also love Derrick White’s D and, with Trae almost 9k, I will go elsewhere on this team. Like, for example, Prince (4500), who will be back and could get 35 minutes and put up an easy 30DKP tonight.
DeAndre Jordan QUESTIONABLE - If he plays, I still expect he only gets like 20-25 minutes, given his layoff (and cause the Knicks don’t want to win), but this news is significant and, since he is currently listed as a game time decision, we probably won’t get news until about 730pm, which sucks. If he misses, against this Suns team that gives up the most DKPPG, and is top 10 in pace, I would be all over Mitch Robb (6400) and Vonleh (4600), who would both get serious minutes and production. If Jordan plays, I don’t know how you can take anyone here. Again, I’m not sure if DSJ (6200) or Mudiay (4700) are gonna get more minutes, but you can’t play both. I like to pick the cheap one, but neither is probably the better answer, even against PHX. The best play on the Knicks (if Jordan plays) is Trier (4500) who has been on fire lately and they have been giving him a ton of run at the expense of Knox.
Ingram QUESTIONABLE - Oh man. I feel bad for Lakers fans. Not bad enough that I feel 0 schadenfreude, but regardless. It sucks. Now Kuzma is OUT, Lonzo is still OUT, Ingram is QUESTIONABLE with the shoulder injury that caused him to miss last game, and, much less importantly, Stephenson and Chandler are QUESTIONABLE. There is no O/U or spread out in Vegas for this, and for good reason. They have to see how many of these people miss to determine whether to set the line at DEN -11 or DEN -14. If Ingram misses, I find it hard to justify paying up for LeBron (11300) or Jokic (10600), though I absolutely adore the spot both of them are in. I mean, Lakers are worst against C lately, and they have no one even close to decent enough there to stop Jokic. But how can it stay close if the Lakers active roster is: LeBron, Rondo (6000), Bullock (4200), JaVale (3700), Hart (3300), KCP (3200) with Bonga, Muscala, and Wagner soaking up a small amount of minutes (though we should see Muscala (3000) get a major step up if Chandler does miss). I mean, Rondo is cheap enough he could pay out regardless, plus he is playing on national TV, so you should basically just lock him in already (especially if Stephenson and Ingram miss). Hart would also be a sensational option, given he would run the backup point, and still have high enough usage that he could easily pay that salary off. McGee is also someone you can play if Chandler is out if you think this game stays close, but I will take Muscala in that circumstance. On the Denver Side, as I already said, I LOVE Jokic but I can’t think this game stays close and I can’t waste more than 20% of my salary on someone getting 3 quarters, if that. I would also expect the same to apply to Millsap (6900) and Murray (6200). Hart is actually a decent defender (like Tyus Jones in MIN), so the absence of Ingram and Stephenson would make the Denver guards WORSE plays, especially the ones that wouldn’t get the blow off run. I would be a big fan of playing a Plumlee (4200) who will get a ton of C run, where he can eat, and will get enough minutes to pay it off even if it doesn’t blow out. But if it does, he can help win you a GPP.
Ok. I wanted to go to sleep 4 hours ago, but I had a Doctor appointment today, and I have to have another test and they think I’m gonna need a surgery on my spine and I just can’t sleep. So at least I could focus on something else for a while and get some work out of the way. Hopefully it is as high quality as I normally pride myself on, but I do have to admit I am a little distracted this evening. Thank you all, as always. I love you. And Best of Luck tonight!! I hope to see you later for a Good Chalk/Bad Chalk.
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