First edit: Fuck this thing blew up. in all my years of redditing I have never been overwhelmed with wholesomeness like today. Thank you moderators for pinning this post - I will keep updating this on the regular! Before I go, if anyone wants further information going back before 25th January,here's a chronology of eventsfrom pre-squeeze till 4th February written by yours truly. Valentines Day 14/02 edit: Thank you all for your positive feedback and for literally all the awards. In all my life I never got platinum, let alone Argentium, and then Ternion!!! I had a few celebratory drinks last night and I woke up totally shitfaced. It's valentine's day and I will be spending the day with the gf (who as some of you noticed from my page-article, we are expecting by the end of the month and she is right about to pop so she needs extra care and attention). I will be reading all the comments during the day, every time the gf turns her head a bit from me. I'm saving the comments with links to DDs so that I can add them later on. I urge each and every one of you to read the new section 'HOW CAN YOU HELP ME WITH THIS THREAD' Again thank you for everything and stay positive! Make sure to let the ones who care about you know that you care about them too today! Happy Valentines Day! ______________________________________________ It took me a very long time to collect and create abstracts, but I finally finished. I'm totally exhausted but quite proud of myself for bringing you everything you need to know so far in one thread. I would love for this thread to be stickied, and if it does I plan to continue to update the same thread every day. If it does not I will continue posting updated versions every day. I also have my own website where I will keep updating this list.
Please help spread this around - knowledge is power. If you have a link to more DD leave a comment!
Please note that all Dates and Times posted are Central European Times (CET) Obligatory: This is not financial advice. I am a smooth-brained holder of GME 🚀💎🤲 We like the stock! ______________________________________________
First of all, THANK YOU. If you really want to help me and our brothers, here's what you can do:
Read and provide criticism, help me make better summaries and one-liners for the links to make it as readable as possible (think: ELI5)
Share this post to everyone you know - link this thread in WSB threads as comments so that we can educate the ignorant. We can link it in a way such as this: " Here’s a link to the motherload of DD for our favorite stonk " Empower others with knowledge
Look for any DD I have missed, old and new, especially in OG WSB from before the coup - send them to me as links in comments AND AS CHAT MESSAGES. I am going through all messages and I will update later today
We need to find a way to archive all the DD links from WSB so that if the mods of WSB catch on, we can have a backup of the threads before they delete them!
Collect more information on the coup, such as the info that was present from wallstreetbetstest and u/zjz posts. The retaliation messages, proof of removals of threads, bans for no reason ...etc.
Collect fake media articles that we can disprove so that I can compile a full list of bullshit media providers and articles
Let me know how I can better organize this thread.
and finally, don't forget to REPORT SHILLS. I would love to become a moderator and be able to investigate and ban shills myself. I applied but I don't think it will happen for now.
______________________________________________ Backdated posts added later in edits:
11-02 03:00
Added the Chronology of events from pre-squeeze to 4th February.
Price target prediction end of next week 19th Feb @ $58-59, with peaks above $60 to issue further Calls (to get paid the premium) then hold it below this line.
The following week 26th Feb will end below $70 as there is a large off-set of calls vs Puts at this strike price, and a gain from 50-70 in two weeks will bring in more retail investors again.
The surge up to $480 was likely not short-squeezing, but reducing liquidity along with massive retail investment along with Gamma squeeze covering naked options.
HFs liquidated significant positions of major holdings causing red days to have cash for covering positions.
Shills, bots and crooked mods have infested WSB to spread FUD and delete posts and users fighting the good fight.
Massive amount of $800 Calls expiring March 19th, along with massive amount of Puts for TSLA - as GME spiked TSLA tanks
We will likely not see a massive squeeze, but a slow cover similar to TSLA short squeeze.
Second time posting this. Made it last night but other than a collab between CGC and APHA, news about the merger seems to be the same this morning. This is my first DD so please bare with me in case I set something up wrong; I'm happy to edit if so but this took me a while to gather. I just joined this sub about two weeks ago amidst the GME hype. I've been investing for a few years now ever since the Tilray IPO at $17. Bought, sold, and reinvested consistently (pulling out my principal each time) right up through the almost $300 peak and backed out. I left Tilray alone for a while until recently when the news regarding the merger with Aphria started popping up because I actually love Aphria and I've owned it for a while now, so I wanted to post some DD regarding the merger. Hope this helps some of you. For the business: Reverse merger is taking place where Aphria is absorbing Tilray and will own 63% of the company, continuing to use the name Tilray due to better brand recognition and its nearly eponymous representation of the cannabis market. Aphria has a strong presence in Germany which is the only European country with medical marijuana, so Aphria has an advantage in that sector for if/when other European nations start following suit. With both Aphria's and Tilray's international relations along with slowly migrating into the US they may grow into the largest cannabis company worldwide just in terms of revenue. Over the previous 12 months, Aphria put up $443 million USD in revenue compared to Canopy Growth's $377m USD. Tilray has put up $201m USD in the last 12 months, and which combined with Aphria is $644m USD, or markedly higher than the $377m USD posted by the "industry standard," Canopy Growth. (I don't hate on Canopy as a company whatsoever I just think they're overvalued and their stock should not be in the $40s). Stats from the merger indicated a $685 million annual revenue, adjusted for combined sales, and the company itself, named Tilray, will have a roughly $3.5 billion valuation. Also, many forget that Tilray has a business partnership with Anheuser-Busch and Aphria owns the craft beer company SweetWater. (Which, personally, is fucking delicious.) For the shareholder: Each Aphria share will convert to 0.8381 shares of Tilray. As of today (Monday, 02/08/21) the closing price of Tilray was $30.09 and the price of Aphria was $18.98. In accordance to the 1 : .8381 conversion rate, the implied price of Aphria is $25.22, which has a 33% upside compared to the current share price. I don't know the current borrowing rates (if anyone does please feel free to comment), but in January of 2019 the shorting cost for Tilray was above 900% and has been known to remain very high on this stock, as after it's $300 rally a couple years ago it became a favorite among the shorts. There is a way in which to capitalize on the merger by being long on Aphria and short Tilray, but the 30% profit may be outweighed by the crazy high costs of borrowing. The two biggest risks appear to be the possibility that Aphria shares will crash days before the merger, or that that Tilray has simply been overvalued this entire time and its share price will fall. (The strategy is listed in the sources herehttps://seekingalpha.com/article/4404265-tilray-aphria-30-merger-arbitrage-is-tough-to-play& herehttps://seekingalpha.com/article/4401101-aphria-and-tilray-option-strategy-enhances-returns-and-mitigates-lossesbut you can only open the articles once without a subscription For everyone: The general consensus on both stocks is bullish, however, more focus is placed on buying into Tilray than Aphria, seemingly just due to the belief that people may jump ship days before Aphria shares are converted into Tilray (even though Aphria still owns the operation). The company will also have easy access into the United States as our president restructures drug scheduling, so moving forward, I feel that Tilray is going to be a strong global competitor in the cannabis industry for some time I try not to go balls deep on anything that has a lot of hype on it, but Tilray made me BANK right when I first started investing a few months before Canada legalized so I may be biased. However, as objectively as I can be, I do think this merger is both a very strong short and long option. I don't really know if it's a necessary disclaimer or a joke but I'm gonna go ahead and say no, none of this is financial advice. My positions: 100 APHA @ $11.13, 2 TSLA @ $408.66, 3 GME @ $165, 10 AMC @ $17.04, 100 SNDL @ $1.13, 100 22 RIGL @ $4.40 Calls: APHA $20 2/19, TLRY $37 2/19, SENS $4 2/19, CRBP $3 2/19, RIGL $5 2/19 I'm transferring both my RH and TDA accounts over to Fidelity so all my stocks are in different places atm, otherwise I'd post a picture. Sources:https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/02/02/duplicatedoes-the-united-nations-decision-on-canna/(Jan 7, 2021) https://seekingalpha.com/article/4404265-tilray-aphria-30-merger-arbitrage-is-tough-to-play(Feb 8, 2021) https://seekingalpha.com/article/4401101-aphria-and-tilra y-option-strategy-enhances-returns-and-mitigates-losses(Jan 26, 2021) https://aphriainc.com/aphria-and-tilray-combine-to-create-largest-global-cannabis-company/?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link(Dec 16, 2020) https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/the-aphria-tilray-merger-shows-just-how-overpriced-canopy-growth-is-2021-01-07(Jan 7, 2021) https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/02/03/could-tilray-be-a-millionaire-maker-stock/(Feb 3, 2021) Edit: Fixed conversion rate typo from incorrect: 1: .08381 to 1 : .8381 (Thank you u/Stunna2018) Edit 2: Added the following list below of supporting info for legalizing marijuana nationwide. A trio of U.S. senators has given investors the green light to invest in marijuana stocks, an endorsement that suggests the volatile sector might finally blossom into something as acceptable and regulated as alcohol. More details will emerge when Sens. Cory Booker (D., N.J.), Ron Wyden, (D., Ore.), and Chuck Schumer (D., N.Y.) introduce legislation to legalize and tax marijuana. "In the early part of this year, we will release a unified discussion draft on comprehensive reform to ensure restorative justice, protect public health and implement responsible taxes and regulations," they announced Feb. 1 in a joint statement. The marijuana sector has, naturally, advanced higher. The sector proxy, the ETFMG Alternative Harvest exchange- traded fund , has seemingly entered a new, higher trading range. The ETF holds 35 stocks, including Aphria(APHA) , Canopy Growth(CGC) , and GW Pharmaceuticals(GWPH) . The fund has about $1.4 billion under management, which makes it the largest ETF that targets the global cannabis industry. In anticipation of the pending legislation, and in an attempt to harness the momentum of other investors, aggressive investors can consider buying ETFMG Alternative Harvest. The ETF is trading near a record high, but an options strategy can potentially reshape the price. With the ETF at $27.82, investors can sell the March $25 put option for $1.90 and buy the March $29 call option for about $2.80. The "risk reversal" -- selling a put and buying a call with a higher strike price but similar expiration -- positions investors for agreeing to buy the ETF at $25 and for participating in gains above $29. If the ETF is at $35 at March expiration, the call is worth $6. The trade's risk is predicated on the pending legislation. The trade obligates investors to buy the stock at $23, or to cover the put or roll the position, if the stock price is below the strike price at expiration. For that reason, only do this trade if you have the resources and willingness to buy the ETF at a lower price and a belief in marijuana's pending legalization. If something happens in Washington that derails marijuana legalization efforts, the trade falls apart. Still, the trade is a good way for investors to gain exposure to the legalization of marijuana, which seems like a good bet as federal government contends with massive deficits caused by the 2007-09 financial crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic. The ETF was chosen over component stocks to potentially reduce the investment risk that is inherent in picking stocks in an unusual sector with companies that have a history of extraordinary price volatility. During the past 52 weeks, the ETF has ranged from $8.81 to $27.90. The fund gained about 45% over the past year and is up some 67% this year. The percentage returns seem stellar, but it is important to remember that the fund has advanced off a low price, and that many of the components weren't much better situated. The sector could be facing a critical moment, and this trade puts investors into the center of the industry with a strategy that can be reset as each month passes. Email: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) Edit 3: Tilray short interest now at 51% https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/cannabis-stocks-why-tlry-cgc-apha-acb-and-sndl-are-climbing-today-1030061480 Edit 4: Thank you all for the awards, especially the tendies but go spend that money on pot/stocks!!
MVIS: Shiny Laser Go Pew ⚡ No But Seriously They Are Gonna Take Over The LiDAR Industry
So, the day has come, and MicroVision's market cap is finally big enough so that you won't get banned for mentioning it on WSB. But what is it? Why have they seen an 800%+ increase in three months? Where are they headed? Allow me to explain. About Them MicroVision, Inc. (MVIS) makes futuristic-as-fuck laser technology that's used in self driving cars and augmented reality headsets. This already sets them apart from a major competitors like Velodyne (VLDR), which focuses solely on LiDAR for self driving cars. Sumit Sharma, the CEO, was head of operations at Google's Project GLASS and has worked to map hardware development at Motorola, also worked at Jawbone. Source Why have they been increasing 800% in three months while similar companies in the same sector see a fraction of that gain? Because their tech is much more advanced than the competition, and they were (are) criminally undervalued. The reason they're so undervalued is because the first thing hedge funds see when they research a potential investment is the balance sheet, and on paper MVIS looks like shit. (Low assets, high liabilities) Even I saw the movement back in December, did some research, and was like "Wtf is this? I need to get puts" But once you do research into their product, who their customers are, and the future of the industry that they are involved in, you see that MicroVision is a turnaround story similar to that of Plug Power; both are 90's futuristic companies that people got way too excited about in 2000, have struggled to make it to 2020, but now are about to finally have their heyday. And they got a $13 million equity facility (loan) in December that greatly improved their balance sheet, making them appeal to institutions, and bringing Vanguard and Blackrock to invest in MVIS days later. I actually had a hedge fund manager tell me that MVIS was doomed to run out of cash in Q1 2020, but if they secured funds then they would have a lot of potential. I go over that in the comments. MVIS (left) vs PLUG (right) 1990's until present Anyways, what is this "much more advanced" technology? I'll just let this chart do the talking: The MicroVision Consumer LIDAR being compared here isn't even their model designed for self-driving cars, that will be coming in April. The resolution it can take as input/second, the points per second, is key when it comes to how clearly the LiDAR sensor can see, how accurately it can identify what it is seeing, and how quickly it can react. That chart is from 2 years ago and still the best resolution Velodyne can provide today is only 4,800,000 pps in their most advanced model, the "Alpha Prime"
3D Lidar Data Points Generated 2- Single Return Mode: ~ 2,400,000 points per second- Dual Return Mode: ~ 4,800,000 points per second.
VLDR has not publicly announced a price for their Alpha Prime yet, but historically their top of the line devices cost $75,000. I have seen unsourced numbers of the Alpha Prime costing $100,000. That was last year, will probably be brought down to be more reasonable for automakers to purchase. They did announce a $500 model called the Velarray H800 in November, but the only thing they said about its pps resolution is that its "outstanding"... lol. As for Luminar (LAZR), they will launch the new model "Iris" in 2022, which will cost about $1,000: (the same price as MicroVision's device to be revealed in April). It will also only operate at 10Hz. This is similar to playing a racing game at 10FPS. If you know anything about video games, you know that this is unplayable.
Iris will cost less than $1,000 per unit for production vehicles seeking serious autonomy, and for $500 you can get a more limited version for more limited purposes like driver assistance, or ADAS. Luminar says Iris is 'slated to launch commercially on production vehicles beginning in 2022,' but that doesn't mean necessarily that it's shipping to customers right now. The company is negotiating more than a billion dollars in contracts at present, a representative told me, and 2022 would be the earliest that vehicles with Iris could be made available.
A lengthy post has been make comparing Luminar's resolutions with MicroVision's, which was not easy to calculate because Luminar said their resolution was "300dpi/spdeg", a statistic that is incomprehensible for shareholders because its not the common specification of millions (3D) points per second. Here's the math, I sum it all up at the bottom:
Luminar's Hydra claims resolution of "up to 200 points per square degree" and a FOV of 120° x 30° (degrees). (and 300 points for Iris, the one coming in 2022.) However, the vertical FOV can be configured from 1° to 30° , which likely explains the use of "up to" in the resolution numbers. Generally, as FOV expands, resolution shrinks, assuming a constant pixel stream. This is why Alex Kipman made such a big deal about MSFT maintaining resolution in Hololens 2(YT links aren't allowed apparently) while expanding FOV because it required more pixels to do so. Specifically, regarding Luminar, is 200 points per square degree available when FOV is at the maximum 120° x 30°? Or is it available only at a lesser FOV such as, for example, 120° x 5°? The use of "up to" suggests the latter. Even assuming 200 points per square degree at 120° x 30° is available, which is not conceded given the stated "up to", that would yield a total resolution of 720,000 points. MVIS claims capacity in excess of 20M points per second. At a resolution of 720,000 points, Luminar would require a frame rate of 27.7 Hz to equal 20M points per second. Luminar's specs do not suggest that its technology is capable of such a high frame rate at this resolution. This is not surprising given it does not use MEMS micromirrors but something more "mechanical" including, as per a recent patent, spindles and a drive belt (1) At video time 19:56, Luminar compares the specs of its Iris product to industry requirements. The graphic reveals that Luminar's 2022 production lidar, Iris, will support resolution of 300 points per square degree at 10 Hz. Assuming that resolution applies to the entire FOV of 120 x 30 degrees and not just a portion of the FOV, that would imply a points per second value of 120 x 30 x 300 x 10 Hz = 10.8M points per second. If the 300 points/ sq. deg applies only to a smaller FOV, the points per second figure would be proportionally smaller. Microvision claims 20M points per second for its current MEMS lidar. The company also advises that its technology is capable of more than 20M points/sec.
TLDR: The best case scenario for Luminar is that their 2022 model will have 10.8 million pps, but in reality its probably much lower than that because of FOV configurations, careful wording by press releases, and Hz limitations. Additional Interesting insight on Luminar and their tech lagging behind is in the comments, this post is long enough already. Again the MicroVision Consumer LIDAR (specifications) being used for comparison here isn't even their model designed for self-driving cars. Their device specialized for cars, the "1st gen Long Range LiDAR (LRL) Sensor", will be coming in April.
We expect our 1st generation LRL Sensor to have range of at least 250 meters and the highest resolution at range of any lidar with 340 vertical lines up to 250 meters, 568 vertical lines up to 120 meters and 944 vertical lines up to 60 meters. This equatesto 520 points per square degree.
(For those who read the math on LAZR, notice he doesn't say up to) It testing is successful, the 1st Generation LRL Sensor will be able to calculate velocity of objects relative to itself, and be able to be used in Level 3 and Level 4 self-driving applications
Our LRL Sensor will also output velocity of moving objects relative to an ego vehicle across our dynamic field of view in real-time 30 Hz sensor output. This sensor would accelerate development of Level 3 (L3) autonomous safety and Level 4 (L4) autonomous driving features that are important to potential customers and interested parties.
What is Level 3 and Level 4 autonomous driving? https://preview.redd.it/n4c8831l9dh61.png?width=848&format=png&auto=webp&s=0652984c72da3159b53a4fc4058c9d9e33cc6b05 Level 1 is feet off, level 2 is hands off, level 3 is eyes off, level 4 is mind off, and level 5 is full passenger (you can sit in the back). So basically, they have that 2045 technology today, while everyone else is trying to play catch-up. How is it so advanced? It all lies in the high resolution of the laser sensors.
I've seen MVIS's LiDAR in action at a shareholder meeting. It can recognize people. This has been described on MicroVision's conference calls, and has been described with significant additional safety and convenience features. This could identify individual people Can distinguish between pets and people (or YOUR pet and the neighbors pet) Can distinguish between normal behaviors and strange things that could be of concern Could save face-scans of intruders and allow intruders to be identified later Source
LiDAR is the only sensor that gives you resolution at range: the ability to get very fine and very accurate detection of objects in space.
that's why Teslas use radar systems in addition to their cameras, still not good enough to prevent fatalities on the road using Tesla's "full self-driving" software. Also, cameras struggle with light glare, weather, and 3D imaging, while LiDAR fixes all those issues. The main advantage of cameras are their resolution, and MicroVision is bridging the gap. So, will testing be successful?
We expect the capability of our LRL Sensor to meet or exceed OEM requirements, based on technology we have scaled multiple times over the last decade, as being a very strong strategic advantage. (Same source)
This product has been getting fine tuned for years and I am personally confident that they will be able to outperform in their testing. Demonstration(YT links aren't allowed apparently) of their consumer LiDAR product from 2018 (make sure your quality is all the way up). Growing Industry The self-driving cars market is expected to reach 220.44 billion dollars by 2025. This includes taxi, civil, public transport, heavy duty trucks, ride shares, and ride hail (UBER - 72 B mkt cap) applications. Traffic Accidents in the US aloneCost 871 Billion A Year, even just yesterday there was an insane pileup on the I-35W highway in Texas that killed 6, injured 36, and damaged 133 vehicles. Not only self-driven cars need LiDAR. In a few years, as soon as MicroVision's 1st Gen LRL is available, LiDAR systems will certainly become mandatory for (still) human-controlled cars to avoid collisions. This tech could become as revolutionary and successful as airbags. Airbags are a 37.3 billion dollar industry. If only 10% of the cars produced annually contain four Microvision LRL systems, this will result in a volume of 364 million units in ten years. (9.1 million cars * 4 modules * 10 years) And this is a conservative calculation, both a higher market share, more cars produced, and more modules per car are conceivable. At least 4 LRL devices will be necessary to establish a \"circle of safety.\" Augmented Reality The Hololens 2 is an example of a Virtual Reality Device (VRD) manufactured by Microsoft that uses MicroVision MEMS Laser Scanning display modules inside. NASA & Lockeed Martin using Hololens (Video)(YT links aren't allowed apparently)
'When a technician puts on the Hololens, they instantly see the work instruction, instead of having to go through stacks of rectangular data, whether its paper or another form of a screen'... 'We see a reduction in cost, increases in quality'... 'What we've found is we can take an 8 hour activity and reduce it down to 45 minutes'... 'We haven't had a single error that's been documented'...
This new GPS system comes equipped with an augmented reality heads-up-display (HUD) that attaches directly to your sun visor. This laser-projected GPS micro-display, developed in collaboration with MicroVision, makes it appear that your route directions show directly on top of the road, letting you keep your eyes on the road at the same time.
Cook was asked about what he expects to be the biggest tech developments in the next five to 10 years. Cook’s response made it clear that he sees augmented reality as the future, calling it the “next big thing.”
While attending a trauma call in the early stages of the pandemic, Mr Kinross noticed that 29 people were working in close proximity. He realized the established way of working would have to change dramatically.
The technician is then linked with a Mercedes-Benz specialist working remotely who can see what the tech sees and communicate in real-time -- manipulating the holographic information with annotations, highlighting areas of focus, pointing at things in the real world and presenting documents and service manuals.
In the next few years, business verticals will be possible in the markets for smart glasses (Video)(YT links aren't allowed apparently) and projections with touchless input(YT links aren't allowed apparently) and gesture control. For example, an eyewear company could develop the smallest and lightest smart glasses device on the market using the chip in that smart glasses video.
In the MicroVision Augmented Reality video, for example, we share a potential module design using our existing MEMS technology platform that could offer the lightest, smallest in volume, low power module with up to 40 degrees field of view packaged into eye wear that resembles frames currently accepted in the market. I believe one could see how our module in the design example would be compelling for a mass-market product.Source
Patents MicroVision has 484 patents granted and pending. This was enough to get them on the Ocean Tomo 300 Patent Value Index. What is that you ask?
The Ocean Tomo 300® Patent Value Index includes the top value companies of the broad- market Ocean Tomo 300® Patent Index, as determined by the price-to-book ratio, and is diversified across market capitalization. It is the industry’s first value index based on the value of intellectual property and represents a portfolio of 60 companies with the highest innovation ratio (i.e., patent maintenance value relative to book value). Source
This index also outperforms the Russel 1000 and the S&P 500. Their intellectual property includes in-house developed custom MEMS, custom optics, proprietary digital and analog silicon chips, embedded real-time firmware and software, manufacturing processes, custom automation and strategic partnerships that allow them to operate in a sleek model. MicroVision patents and products therefore serve many future markets:
Whoever has the MicroVision technology may be able to eliminate the competition or demand license fees from them. Or the other way around: Whoever does not buy the technology can be excluded from markets. Therefore, bidding competition may arise to gain access to the market. Whoever has the best LiDAR system for cars will also be able to supply other components and software to car manufacturers. The car manufacturer who has the best LiDAR system has a big advantage over the competition. All Notable Competition: Velodyne LiDAR, Luminar, Sense Photonics, Robosense, Valeo, SureStar MicroVision: founded in 1993 Velodyne Lidar VLDR: founded in 1983, but as a subwoofer company 😂 and only got into LiDAR in 2005 LAZR: founded in 2012 Non-Public: Valeo: Founded in 1998 Robosense: Founded in 2014 SureStar: Founded in 2005 Basically, MVIS is all these other companies' daddy. They have been working on LiDAR for almost 30 years and it shows, just imagine what they will be able to develop in a few years with more funding. https://preview.redd.it/eh5csdcz9dh61.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=068fe6f5508e693ace5c6c56d4d2a5d9294836fb Insider Activity MicroVision is very transparent with its inner workings of the company, you can easily reach out to them on their website under "Investors." One of many conferences held with Vice President David Westgor, investor relations manager Dave Allen, and investors of MVIS revealed:
As to the employee incentive plan, Steve Holt made the point that in his 7 years of experience (I think it was) with MVIS, NO EMPLOYEE had actually ever cashed out in the money options.
Case in point, on December 1s, 2020, the day after she joined the team, Judith Curran was paid with 3 million dollars worth of $3 calls expiring in 2022, and she has not cashed out. On Yahoo it reports that the last insider sale was in 2014. Institutional Investments For reasons stated earlier, institutions have been late to the game on this one, but now are starting to get on the rocket ship before it takes off. MVIS is now the largest holding in the S&P Kensho Moonshots Index, (KMOONP), which is literally an ETF of stocks that are going go the moon 🌙 . Blackrock purchased 2.44 million shares on December 31, 2020. Vanguard purchased 6.61 million shares on the same day. Recent Events MVIS's stagnation really started to break on December 1st 2020, with MVIS when former Ford Executive Judith Curran was added to MVIS's board of directors.
Curran is an accomplished senior automotive executive with over 30 years of experience in vehicle program, engineering and technology leadership. Curran has a strong record of leading innovation at Ford Motor Company where she served in a number of executive positions including Director of Technology Strategy, where she developed the cross-vehicle global strategy for key new technologies including assisted driving, infotainment, new electrical architectures, and connectivity.
Doesn't take a genius to figure out they were about to ride the EV wave, and were appointing the right people to be poised to do so. Eight days later on December 8th 2020, the US Congress approved approximately $700M for the roll-out of IVAS in 2021. 7 days after that on December 15th, MVIS broke $4 for the first time in nine years. December 29, 2020: MicroVision Announces $13 Million At-the-Market Equity Facility (this is huge for improving balance sheet and attracting hedge funds/institutional ownership)
So far, our team remains on track to complete our Long Range Lidar sensor sample in April 2021. We believe this financing will further solidify our balance sheet as we remain committed to pursuing strategic alternatives and establishing value for our shareholders,” said Sumit Sharma, MicroVision Chief Executive Officer. “We expect a stronger balance sheet will provide the Company with runway through 2021 and into the first quarter of 2022 to enable us to continue development of our lidar sensor while pursuing strategic alternatives,” said Steve Holt, MicroVision Chief Financial Officer.
December 31: Vanguard adds 6.6 million shares, Blackrock adds adds 2.4. January 20, 2021: Apple CEO Tim Cook says Augmented Reality is the "Next Big Thing." Feb 2, 2021 YooToob stock analyst Deadnsyde covers(YT links aren't allowed apparently) MVIS, causing the beginning of a large breakout past $8. Feb 4: MicroVision granted patent (WSB bot is blocking source from being posted- thinks it contains a ticker), essentially lidar on a chip, this patent in particular is huge. (solid state lidar) Feb 10: Cramer mentions MVIS, says LIDAR is one of three battlegrounds for EV competition. Feb 10 after hours: MVIS announces Progress on Automotive Long Range LiDAR, saying “We expect MicroVision’s Long Range Lidar Sensor, (LRL Sensor) which has been in development for over two years, to meet or exceed requirements established by OEMs for autonomous safety and autonomous driving features,” said Sumit Sharma, Chief Executive Officer of MicroVision. Feb 11: Volkswagen and Microsoft team up on automated driving (potential for MVIS to get involved). Talent at MicroVision Sumit Sharma became the CEO in February of 2020, he is a mechanical engineer that has been with MVIS for five years after having been the head of operations at Google Project Glass, and working for Motorola and Jawbone. Dr. Mark Spitzer is on the board of directors having previously worked at Google X, Darpa, Kopin and having founded Myvu and Photonic Glass. Judy Curran joined the board this year after spending 30 years at Ford, where she was the Director of Technical Strategy. She is also the Head of Global Automotive Strategy for Ansys, a simulation software company that works with ADAS systems. Technical analysis Resistance at 46.75, 123. 39, and 204. 23, could turn to supports. Moving Average Analysis: On February 28, 2020, Market Cap of PLUG was 1.32B, on this date the 120 day MA touches the 8y moving average. 11 months later, PLUG has a market cap of 33.79B, an increase of 2459%. On September 3, 2020, Market Cap of MVIS was 0.21B, on this date 120 day MA touches the 8y moving average. 5 months later, MVIS has a market cap of 2.77B an increase of 1219%. 6 months forward price target: $34.348B Conclusion/Valuation/TLDR LAZR is currently valued at 12.22B VLDR at 3.92B MVIS at 2.77B MicroVision offers a quantitatively much higher performance product than both of its competitor companies. Because of their lack of focus on augmented reality technologies, competitors are not likely to have a future in the markets of smart glasses, healthcare, engineering, military equipment, GPS safety, entertainment, and interactive projectors. They are involved in an industry that is currently at an inflection point, due to grow massively in the near future. Their high number of extremely advanced patents will bring in significant revenue for the company in the coming years. I have never seen a company with such low insider selling, that the last case of a sale was in 2014. Institutional investors are piling in as MicroVision's balance sheet improves and they near the April LRL sensor test date, which has a high likelihood of being a success. I think this stock should currently be valued at 20 Billion dollars, taking all of this into account, and expect it to rise drastically over the next few years. This is not financial advice, I am not a financial advisor, do your own research before believing some retard on the internet. Positions: 300 shares, $19 call 5/21, $20 call 3/19, $31 call 2/19(FD), $28 call 2/19, $24 call 2/19.
To not flunk out of college, I changed my grades and thousands of others' as well.
When I was a student at a major university in the late 80's, I was failing several classes miserably. I had completely screwed up in 2 of my 6 classes and I needed to make a plan of how not to flunk out. For one class, I decided to dedicate all my spare time in correcting where I went wrong and fix it by acing the final exam. The other class , which was much more technical, required that I come up with a plan. Keep in mind, that I was a total goody-two shoes kid who felt like they were in a desperate situation. Failing out of college was not something I could allow to happen. Desperate times, desperate measures. The class that I needed to pass was a science/engineering class that I had not bothered to go to. So i went to the very last Thursday class to figure out my plan. One thing the professor did say was that if you had a 93 or higher average in the class you could opt out of the final exam that was happening in 1 week. I had a 64 average so I had to take the exam. How was I going to ace this exam? My grades were too low to get pulled up enough. The only way to fix this was to get my grades changed. So I came up with a "Hail Mary" plan. One that involved a few rules to be broken, and by rules, I mean laws. The science building were the class was given would close for the weekend. This meant that the professors' offices were locked and most of the labs were locked as well. You could still get into the main parts of the building but you had to talk to a security person if it was after hours. (There wasn't digital badges and shit like that back then.) So here was my plan. On Friday afternoon after most classes were over, I scoped out the whole building. It was a u-shaped building that was 3 stories tall. I had to find a way in. Luckily, I found one of the 1st floor labs on the inside of the "u" had large horizontal windows that could be unlocked and would allow for someone to crawl through. Even better, one of the labs windows were obscured by a small fenced in area that housed some of the electrical and HVAC units. Large bushes lined the fence as well. So while I was there I went into the lab and unlocked a window to allow myself a place to enter the building. The door of the lab was propped open and I unpropped it and let it close. It locked. Good to know! It also reduced the chances of someone relocking the window. I also scoped out the professor's office. It was open but he was was not there. It was very small with no windows. Just enough room for a desk, his chair and a a couple of other chairs. His office door was an all metal door painted beige except for a small center window in the middle. The window had a wire screen built into the glass held in place by a simple screwed on frame. There were lots of manilla envelopes and schedules etc on the door as well. This would be a challenge but I had formed my plan. At around 3:30 in the morning I arrived back at the building with my backpack and a plan to break into th building. I had a hammer, pliers, a roll of tape and some screwdrivers that I had scrounged and I was nervous as hell. I made way through the bushes and climbed over the fence. I checked the window and it was still unlocked. I pulled myself up through the window and into the dark lab. Remembering that the lab doors would lock behind you, I slowly opened the lab door and placed some tape on the lock to stop it from locking. I was expecting a quiet building but instead was greeted by the loud sound of machinery running. Another lab was conducting an all night test or something and at least 3 upper level students were there overseeing the project. In a way that was good because my presence wouldn't necessarily be noticeable by others. I would find out later that it would also cover any noises I made. I made my way to the professor's office door which was in a more out of the way part of the building. The office was located right by one of the stair wells so I could hear anyone coming down the stairs and also, if someone happened to start coming from the other way I could use the stairs for a quick exit. I pulled out the screw driver to start unscrewing the frame around the glass window in his door and soon realized that the screws were covered in decades of paint. Not good. What I thought was going to be a 2 minute job turned into a 45 minute job. I went into what I would call "Fuck it mode" and just went to town on this window frame. I had a few starts and stops but no one came by. I got the frame off and tried to pry the glass out of the frame. It was sealed in with paint. Getting the glass out took a monumental amount of slow prying and steady effort. After 30 minutes of scraping and gentle pressure I had the glass pane out. I slowly reached in and turned the lock to unlock the door. I grabbed a large manilla folder on the outside of door and repositioned it over the window, a perfect cover for the now mauled up window. I slide into the office and looked for something to cover the window that would block light. The desk calendar worked well and a few pieces of tape held it up well. Then I turned the lights on to survey the scene. I was now presented with a desk a chair and small slim table behind the desk. Of all the ways my plan could go wrong, my biggest fear was that the professor may have taken all of his grades home with him. A quick look into the large flat file on his desk and I had his full hand-written grade register in my hands and the pen he used for recording grades was tucked right inside. He taught 6 classes that semester and I only needed to change one grade, my grade, however, now that I had seen how banged up the paint was on the glass window frame, I knew I had to alter the plan. I searched through the gradebook and found all of my grades and saw I had several in the 70s and some lower 60's grades. I had done SOME work in the class. I thought it over for a few seconds and started executing Plan B. I went through every single class he had and began randomly changing anything in the 60's to read as in the 80s. Then I went through and change all the 70's I found to read as 90s. I realized that the changed grades wouldn't stand up under close scrutiny so I had to create a "herd immunity' of changed grades. I noticed a few bad students in some of his classes and made some extra efforts at changing their grades. A zero? Now an 88. This was taking awhile. With 6 classes and 50 students or so in each class, and about 10 grades per student, there was about 3000 grades in this register. I changed at least 1500 of those grades. Of course my grades were changed as well. Lots of numbers in the 90s. I closed the grade book and placed it back in the drawer exactly as I had found it but I hear a little "Plink!" sound. I pulled on the drawer and realized it was now locked but wasn't before. OK, So maybe he'll think he locked it. No big deal. My mind began to wonder of what the aftermath of this might be. Would this work? Would I be able to get away with not taking the exam by creating this academic chaos? About this time was when I noticed the IBM PC on his back table. Hmmm. Did he record his grades on a hand written register and his PC? IF he had a backup of the grades, all of this would be for nothing. Also, I couldn't reference all the changed grades a the drawer was now locked. I booted up his IBM PC XT and saw that it had two 3.5 disk drives. There's 5 disks by the computer. What to do? I load each disk in the drive and type "DEL *.* " and nuke them all. I hadn't planned on this but then "Fuck It Mode". So let's review the plan, change so many grades that he would have to take an impossible amount of time to deconstruct the chaos and simply give out good grades or at least better grades as needed. No one particular student would be identifiable as a culprit because there were plenty who had a motivation to change the grades. This was as good of an idea as i could come up with. After having distributed all the good grades to all the good boys and girls I gathered my tools and planned my exit strategy. The back of his door had a few items taped to it as well so i replaced the glass and frame and covered it with another manilla folder. I wrote a poorly written not on a post it that said. "Sorry mop handle cracked the glass. Replaced glass. - maintenance". I then split, got passed the grad student running the machine, slipped out the window and never went back . Didn't show up for the final exam either because you know, higher than a (edited) 90 93 average and all.... Waited 45 long days that summer to get my grades. Got a 90 in the class. Yeah... okay no complaints. There had to be some other people who got their grades and were happier as well. Never suffered any consequences on this either but it was the most stressful night of my life. I haven't done shit like this ever again. TL/DR Read the title. ********** Okay Here's some follow up to messages & comments **************\* So I'm 50 years old now, and I wrote this on a slow last hour of work on a Thursday because I had been reminded of it when reading a different Reddit post. I wrote the post in about 15-20 minutes. A few have asked about the grading discrepancy of 90 vs 93. Now that this memory has taken up a little bit more of my brain space the past 24 hours, what I recall was that the requirement to not have to take the exam was having an A average. We were on a 7 point scale then so that would have been 93 and up. I had changed my grades in the grade book first to meet this requirement (again, the whole time in adrenalin freak out mode) but once I had written over my numbers it was obvious that I was the only one with adjusted grades. I had hoped I could make th e numbers look more convincing. I also realize the self-incriminating factor of just my grades being changed and for self-preservation, started changing them all. It took forever. When I left the building, the the sky was starting to get light for the sunrise. I stated that I arrived at 3:30 am, that was a guess. I wasn't concerned with what time it was was just wanting to get in and get out as soon as I had resolved my grade problem. The thing I failed to convey in the post was that fact I didn't take the exam but when I received my grades I got a 90 (which is a B on the 7 point scale). This didn't match up to not taking the exam because you should need an A to not take it. So technically, I should have complained and said, "Hey where's my A?" since I did not take the exam. So I thought this might have been a dragnet where all students got a maximum B grade and then this would allow them to find legit A students who would complain and possibly flush out an illegitimate C or D students who might ask about their better than expected grade. That's why I wrote "no complaints". State of mind Not an excuse in any way, but I had a parent pass away my first year at college. There wasn't a lot of counseling back then, just a hand on the shoulder and condolences. I don't remember even hearing the word "depression" uttered except in psychology class. Mental health was not freely discussed unless someone had big problems. I was probably on the cusp of what was then called a "nervous breakdown". I had come from a small town, and had expected to escape my one horse town and breeze through college, one of the smart kids ya know. But I had to let my only dream die. I had lost my Dad, my academic career, my escape and my identity at 19. I know plenty had it worse but it felt really bad. I had to eat a lot of humble pie and at first it sucked, but not long after I felt free of the burden of being in the wrong place, pursuing the wrong thing and I started smiling again. Aftermath I changed schools that summer and also change my field of study. Something about experiencing the absolute "guilt of failure" of the first school really made me driven at my new school. It was also a much smaller school and had less distractions. I thrived, made straight As and loved learning the new subject matter. I'll describe my field as "Design" as that's nice and vague. I've been doing that since graduation successfully and have my own company and employees. I'm not world famous or anything but I would bet most of you have had an interaction with something I have designed. This school had been my favorite college sports team my whole childhood and was my single plan as a college student. That died because of this. I had not set foot on that large campus since the day I left many years ago, until this past summer when my son went to go tour. I had to hide the awful feeling I had as we walked by the building where this happened. Just this low sense of ancient dread from a past life staring at me as I walked by, my son unaware and instead excited to be there. The professor in this story works for the same university, He had done other things and came back. He's got patents and a PhD and is an expert in the field. Here's a potentially crummy part. He got his PhD within a year of this incident so I really hope I didn't destroy any of his research when deleting the computer disks. I've thought about anonymously sending him this reddit link or even *67 calling him to see what the true aftermath was but this seems like a bad idea and would likely just bum me out. Doubters My post has several people who doubt the veracity of my post and I get it, it is the internet. But the story is true and if there's any untruth is in the specific number details. Did I wait exactly 45 days for my grades that summer, fuck if I know, I know I did count them back then because I was waiting for grades that would make or break me. But 40-45-65 I don't remember. Did i change that many grades. I swear, I changed as many as I could. 79 now 99, 66 now 86. That's what happened. I distinctly remember feeling the need to do more and more because every time I stopped I would see one more I could change and that meant I was safer from being discovered. There's another, change it. And another. And more was better because each one was another step at covering my tracks. Response - This post got a lot of positive responses, good karma etc. It's misplaced. I didn't do this out of a spirit of goodness. I gave others good grades to mask my fraudulent attempt at bettering my academic standing. I went home after this and passed out sleeping for most of the day. i still had to study for the exam I was trying to ace legitimately and then after that, for weeks afterward I was always wondering, I wonder what happened? And waited on my grades to arrive. Several professors have expressed their disdain at this and yeah, I can see why. obviously. It was a long time ago. I've pondered a way to make things right and correct this wrong I created. I'm open to suggestions. Something about being 50 makes you want to correct mistakes that can be corrected. Bottom line I'm glad if you thought this story from my youth was entertaining. I'm not proud of this. I've never told another soul this story. Who would? The lesson here might be: If it feels like work, dread, like you don't belong; be honest with yourself. There is likely a direction that you will thrive in and this may not be it. I got one of my biggest screw ups out of the way at age 19, some people have theirs much later. I'm a happy person now. Life is good. It's all worth it.
Hi all, it's your friendly neighborhood fellow retard, u/fieryskyes. Looking to open up a discussion thread about today's GME Short Data. I'm attaching an image from ORTEX after today's beautiful share price action. You bet that GME will be making news rounds all over the world after today, over the weekend. We're only getting started. If any of you have read my MOASS price target post from around a week or so ago**, you would know that I kept on hammering the term 'zero point' over and over. It just means it's the starting point (whether it's your portfolio value, or the share price, or both) prior to a face-ripping MOASS. Well, if you've held on to GME the entire time since that post, congratulations. Your zero point has just grown a substantial amount, especially after today's close @ +51.08% (as per Yahoo! Finance GME closing price). GME today even touched ~+-80% intra-day @ $76.76, breaking the previous Share Price ALL-TIME-HIGH of $63.77 (dated Dec. 7, 2008) from ~13 years ago (data gathered using TD-ToS trading platform), and then, closing at the new share price ALL-TIME-HIGH closing price @ $65.01 (as per Y! Finance GME). It's some fucking tendie-town shit. All the mathematical power and beauty of consecutive-day compounding interest is now to GME LONGS' advantage. The inverse is true for shorts: they're getting seriously fucked by many things; face-ripping, ass-gaping, wife-fucking compounding interest only one among them. (Also, RIP to Citron Research AKA. Andrew "Left for Dead" Shitron.) Yeah, you read that shit right: SHORTS are about to get inflicted with MAXIMUM MATHEMATICAL PAIN. It sounds nerdy af I know, but ain't that the truth. I don't claim to be an expert on GME short metrics & data, and so I leave it to the experts to hopefully analyze what I'm attaching here, hence a discussion thread. AKA. WHAT DO THESE CRAYONS ON THE SCREEN MEAN, DADDY? However: based off off what I see on the data attached, I have come to believe that shorts have started to unwind their positions, albeit only slightly, relative to the entire short position. (I could be wrong, and if so, let me know in the comments. Let's discuss.) Still, as the data presents below, it seems that the SHARES SHORTED still stands at a HISTORIC >100%, at 102.29%. Goddamn. My asscheeks just clenched a little writing and thinking about all the trapped shorts (RIP). What an absolutely titanic and colossal failure of risk management. Can't complain though lmao. Tendies all day, everyday, bitch! Again remember, on WSB, we take into account TRADEABLE % of FLOAT, where, according to some DDs posted in the sub, is estimated to be running at around 200%+, due to (we, at the very least, assume) 'fixed' massive institutional and insider ownership, that cannot/will not/might not sell, all while the shorts are fucking drowning and thrashing around, desperate to get some breathable air--in the middle of the goddamn Atlantic Ocean with no boats nor ships in sight. It's like Titanic, but they're Jack, and you're the sexy-ass rich bitch named Rose. Only one survives. (Spoiler alert: It ain't Jack.) All said, I think we have a ways to go before all the shorts are fully covered (we're talking potential MULTIPLES of current price, and, ergo, your DADDY-AS-FUCK GME PORTFOLIO) e.g. more tendies to come. Focus, get ready, and have a plan. This could be THE trade of your lifetime. CRAYONS TO TENDIE-TOWN, BITCH. / You like that, daddy? The image attached is in FULL 4K RESOLUTION. It's some RICH-PEOPLE SHIT. Makes me dripping wet asf looking at those crayons and those numbers 😩💦😩😩🐳🐳🍆🍆🍆😩😩💦💦💦 it probably means were about to git fookin rich as fook, can finally afford tendies 3x a day 24/7 GODDAMN DADDY FUCKK GME SHORT DATA, ORTEX, 1/22/21.\* -Exchange Reported Short Interest: Last: 71.20M Previous: 68.13M %Change: +4.50% -% Freefloat on Loan: Current: 102.29% 7 days ago: 115.45% % Change: -11.40% -Shares on loan: Current: 48M 5 days ago: 54.17M % change: -11.40% -Days to Cover (On loan): Current: 3.06 7 days ago: 4.03 %Change: -24.24% -Cost to Borrow: Current: 23.94% 7 days ago: 23.93% %Change: 0.01% -Utilization: Current: 100% 7 days ago: 100% %Change: 0% TL;DR: Short data as per ORTEX is attached. GME price action fucked over a lot of shorts today, and gilded many GME millionaires. More FUCKING TENDIES to come over the next few days/weeks. You're gonna be rich, daddy (maybe). I'm calling it: S&P500 $GME under papaRyan Cohen's Leadership. You heard it here first. Fuck the haters. We're gonna ride this fucking rocket to another retarded fucking dimension.
Lastly, a special shoutout to our brother and OG GME GANG Rod Alzmann ( u/Uberkikz11 on reddit, and Rod Alzmann on Twitter. Rod is--among many titles--the Prime Author of the GME DD website, accessible to anyone curious about GME-GameStop Valuation Targets : $GME DD ) He was live on BENZINGA this morning, giving a NON-RETARDED & INTELLIGENT REPRESENTATION of GME LONGS and Retail Investors alike ($GME With Rod Alzmann & CJ Trades | ZingerNation Power Hour - YouTube, starts at around 18:39); and I watched as the MARKET FUCKING RIPPED THE SHORTS TO SHREDS (EVEN INFLICTING MULTIPLE TRADING HALTS) WHILE HE WAS BEING INTERVIEWED LMAO. Even the Benzinga hosts couldn't fucking believe it themselves. Appreciate the good work, brother. Fucking cheers!! Maybe Ryan Cohen next? 😎
GME = WHALE-MAKER 🐳 🐳🐳🐳 Long live WSB, and Long live GME. 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 Positions: 100% GME. Diversified at 2/3 in Shares, 1/3 in April calls, and I rode these fuckers to war even during and after the Q3ER share price crash, due to paper hands and heavy short-seller action. #WeRemember and #WeWillNeverForget.NOW, it's time for the Shorts to pay lmao. (Current Value in $ : more than tree fiddy, and more than enoughto finance Andrew "Left for dead" Citron's onlyfans as a tax-deductible charity expense.) Note: none of the content of this post is to imply any right/wrong financial decision. I am not a financial advisor of any kind, just a retard like you. Please only go full retard at your own personal discretion. ----- edit: formatting. making sure this looks cohesive on both PC and mobile. *-edit 2: IMGUR link for ORTEX data: GME MOASS ORTEX Update 1/22/21 **-edit 3: Link to my MOASS Potential Price Target post: GME MOASS (Potential) Price Target. Shorts, you have been warned. edit 4: added an important comment, thanks to u/otto989.
u/otto989: Hold up it says Thursday, Jan 21 at the bottom right of the chart. I'm as curious as all of you about SI after today but want to make sure these numbers are right. u/fieryskyes: Hey man, good catch! Actually, the numbers CHANGED while posting this entire thing, RIGHT AFTER today's close. I literally had to re-type the data. The graph, I will agree, however shows Thursday 21st. Not sure what to make of that exactly. We will keep updating on this for sure. But from what I remember, the "%FREEFLOAT ON LOAN" data changed from 98.68% to 102.29% (as it stands now). Good comment. I will include this in the post itself."
Yea, the "%Free float on loan" actually increased by ~3.5% while I was posting/writing this, as the CLOSING BELL struck (I use TD Ameritrade's Thinkorswim platform like a real trading daddy should, and it rings the bell at close 4PM EST SHARP. So ya I fucking remember that moment like a Pavlovian bitch.) It could mean that the ORTEX data reflected up-to-date data then. Fucking coincidence, amirite? Regardless, WE HAVE A WAYS TO GO before all short positions are covered, if they even have started to cover today in the first place. So chill, daddy, it's all under control and shit. Sit back, relax, and continue to jerk off to your KINGLY GME gains. Don't worry my brothers, I will keep on watching ORTEX data, even on Monday. We will track this bitch in every possible way. Shorts will not get out alive. Also, you can get ORTEX data yourself, with a free 7-day trial period. Not affiliated with them in any way. Just consider it if you want the raw data for yourself.
A Comprehensive Compilation of All Due Diligence on $GME
First edit: Fuck this thing blew up. in all my years of redditing I have never been overwhelmed with wholesomeness like today. Thank you moderators for pinning this post - I will keep updating this on the regular! Before I go, if anyone wants further information going back before 25th January,here's a chronology of eventsfrom pre-squeeze till 4th February written by yours truly. Valentines Day 14/02 edit: Thank you all for your positive feedback and for literally all the awards. In all my life I never got platinum, let alone Argentium, and then Ternion!!! I had a few celebratory drinks last night and I woke up totally shitfaced. It's valentine's day and I will be spending the day with the gf (who as some of you noticed from my page-article, we are expecting by the end of the month and she is right about to pop so she needs extra care and attention). I will be reading all the comments during the day, every time the gf turns her head a bit from me. I'm saving the comments with links to DDs so that I can add them later on. I urge each and every one of you to read the new section 'HOW CAN YOU HELP ME WITH THIS THREAD' Again thank you for everything and stay positive! Make sure to let the ones who care about you know that you care about them too today! Happy Valentines Day! ______________________________________________ It took me a very long time to collect and create abstracts, but I finally finished. I'm totally exhausted but quite proud of myself for bringing you everything you need to know so far in one thread. I would love for this thread to be stickied, and if it does I plan to continue to update the same thread every day. If it does not I will continue posting updated versions every day. I also have my own website where I will keep updating this list.
Please help spread this around - knowledge is power. If you have a link to more DD leave a comment!
Please note that all Dates and Times posted are Central European Times (CET) Obligatory: This is not financial advice. I am a smooth-brained holder of GME 🚀💎🤲 We like the stock! ______________________________________________
First of all, THANK YOU. If you really want to help me and our brothers, here's what you can do:
Read and provide criticism, help me make better summaries and one-liners for the links to make it as readable as possible (think: ELI5)
Share this post to everyone you know - link this thread in WSB threads as comments so that we can educate the ignorant. We can link it in a way such as this: " Here’s a link to the motherload of DD for our favorite stonk " Empower others with knowledge
Look for any DD I have missed, old and new, especially in OG WSB from before the coup - send them to me as links in comments AND AS CHAT MESSAGES. I am going through all messages and I will update later today
We need to find a way to archive all the DD links from WSB so that if the mods of WSB catch on, we can have a backup of the threads before they delete them!
Collect more information on the coup, such as the info that was present from wallstreetbetstest and u/zjz posts. The retaliation messages, proof of removals of threads, bans for no reason ...etc.
Collect fake media articles that we can disprove so that I can compile a full list of bullshit media providers and articles
Let me know how I can better organize this thread.
and finally, don't forget to REPORT SHILLS. I would love to become a moderator and be able to investigate and ban shills myself. I applied but I don't think it will happen for now.
______________________________________________ Backdated posts added later in edits:
11-02 03:00
Added the Chronology of events from pre-squeeze to 4th February.
Price target prediction end of next week 19th Feb @ $58-59, with peaks above $60 to issue further Calls (to get paid the premium) then hold it below this line.
The following week 26th Feb will end below $70 as there is a large off-set of calls vs Puts at this strike price, and a gain from 50-70 in two weeks will bring in more retail investors again.
The surge up to $480 was likely not short-squeezing, but reducing liquidity along with massive retail investment along with Gamma squeeze covering naked options.
HFs liquidated significant positions of major holdings causing red days to have cash for covering positions.
Shills, bots and crooked mods have infested WSB to spread FUD and delete posts and users fighting the good fight.
Massive amount of $800 Calls expiring March 19th, along with massive amount of Puts for TSLA - as GME spiked TSLA tanks
We will likely not see a massive squeeze, but a slow cover similar to TSLA short squeeze.
that one time we tripped acid and played hide and seek with a crackhead
tl;dr at the bottom so me n the homies live in the middle of got damn nowhere we ain’t got neighbors, stores, paved roads, love, or affection what we do have is cornfields, cows that moo back on occasion, and the most important substances homie hits my line he’s like yo i’m like yo he’s all like we gonna have a group trip in one of the local cities (local meaning 3 hours away) i’m like ok bet so we’ve got me, trees, dr corn, jellyboy, cowman, kelgen, and horsemeat (not their real names) our favorite thing to do during the summer was get far away from the cornfields as possible as to prevent ourselves from literally going fuckin mad so everyone but horsemeat (our DD) popped a tab and we were on our way tab kicks in after about 45 minutes and by time we get to the city we’re completely off our ass we park at one of the empty lots and we all grab our longboards we’re zoomin down these hills, and skating on roads without potholes and random obstructions was an experience not many of us were used too, safe to say we’re havin a blast we find this massive hill and we’re all standing on top of it looking down in awe deciding if this is really a good idea it’s pretty dark out at this point and we can’t see where the end of the hill leads, and i’m all for doing crazy shit but none of us had helmets and i didn’t want this to become a nightmare i look over to the group and just as i’m about to tell them to find another hill, cowman puts his board down fuck cowmans flying down this hill and we’re all watching in awe cowman doesn’t know how to power slide cowman can’t slow down cowman is going too fast for his own good and next thing we hear is him yelling FUCKFUCKFUCKFU- and he slams into the curb at the end of the hill oh, damn we decide we’re not skating down the hill after him so we start making our way down on foot hoping little cowman isn’t dead we get to the bottom of the hill and he’s still conscious, thankfully, he just claims his leg was in a lot of pain all good, cowman is alive we’re all sitting there acknowledging what just happened when we hear a voice from behind took quite a fall there bud who the fuck was that i thought and upon looking back i saw the man tall, extremely skinny, ripped clothes, scabs all over, track marks, missing teeth and speech that slowed down and sped up being in a small town, these kinds of drug users weren’t anything new to us, but seeing as though we didn’t have anything on us, there was nothing to be worried about cowman was a little confused so i decided to speak up what’s up oh, not much, said mr crack, was watching you guys skeet around here and just came to see if your ol buddy was okay yeah man he’s all good, appreciate that and then we kinda stare at eachother awkwardly for a few seconds when he drops the line you guys wanna hangout? i mean, yeah fuck it why not so now we’re walking around talkin to this guy about how he lost his job and fell into the slippery slope of addiction seeing as though we’re all drug users we don’t hoist any judgement toward mr crack it was then he stops in his tracks we all abruptly stop as well, waiting to hear mr cracks next words of wisdom you guys wanna play hide and go seek? we all looked at eachother and then cowman started giggling, which was the spark to a wildfire of laughter amongst all of us hell yeah dude let’s play okay kiddos here’s the rules, no going past that building, he said pointing with his finger, and no going past that lake, pointing the other direction fucking bet we decide that since mr crack came up with the idea, he would choose the seeker he chose himself ok i guess so we’re getting ready to go hide when he says stop we all look in admiration toward our new crack jesus it’s hide and seek tag, and if i tag you, you’re on my team, if one man prevails, he is not claimed as the victor unless he has been standing for more than 20 minutes dope now initially i was going to hide with jellyboy, but seeing as though he could just as easily become my enemy, i decide i’m a lone wolf i set a timer on my phone for 20 minutes, let everyone else know i had the timer ready, and it was time to hide my years of hide and seek as a young fetus boy are about to pay off as i pull off my signature trick when he begins to count, i start running, fast running, as to give off the impression that i will be nearing the border of our little play area nearing the border i was not hooked a left behind this building and stopped running, this was perfect i saw a ladder going to this little matinence balcony thing but it was too high to reach mr crack jesus’ voice was piercing through the air as i heard 12 11 10 9 i was running out of time, i had to find a way up scanning the area, i found myself looking at a dumpster a dumpster with wheels fucking jackpot, and right as i got this dumpster to the bottom of the ladder, the final words of mr crack ring in my ears ready or not, im fuckin comin oh but i am ready mr crack and to finish my thought, i see dr corn run around the same building that i had found the dumpster, he’s desperate for a spot to hide finding nothing, he turns back, still not seeing me, and right as he gets to the edge of the building, mr crack appears i hold my breath dr corn tries to pull a sneak move but it is to no avail, as he becomes the first member tagged dr corn down jellyboy, trees, cowman, kelgen, horsemeat and me are still in it for the W seeing as though they hadn’t laid their eyes upon me, i make the decision to stay on this ladder a few minutes go by and i can hear yelling, just barely in ear shot got your ass now boy! FUCK it’s cowmans voice cowman has been claimed an instant later i see trees come across my building, he sees me praying to god that he isn’t tagged, i look him back he puts a finger up to his mouth as to say “don’t say a got damn word” and he’s running away i need a new spot i get down off the ladder and i see trees turn another corner, followed by him yelling OH SHIT WAIT trees has been claimed trees, cowman, and dr corn are predators jellyboy, horsemeat, kelgen and me are the prey and i don’t intend to lose i come across a main road, and going against my instinct of caution i decide to cross it i step onto the main road and on the other side, i see dr corn fuck just as i’m about to turn running, i see kelgen run out on the same road, in between me and dr corn perfect using the moment for my escape, i dip into one of the alleys, wondering if kelgen was going to follow follow he did not kelgen was not fast enough, and now he is down i decide to go down toward the lake and see if i can find any survivors i see horsemeat the only one of us who wasn’t tripping balls behind him i see jellyboy come around a corner and start making his way toward horsemeat the gangs all here, i think, but based on jellyboys face i realize what’s happening he’s going after horsemeat just as horsemeat turns around he is tagged, i use this as my escape i’m running through alleys, trying to survive as long as possible i hear yelling, footsteps, the occasional “go look that way” and it’s all to my advantage i am silent as a mouse i’ve ran through the left side of the main road, and they have been searching through the buildings on the right side they would come left soon it was time for me to cross the main road i decide to count to 3 and make a break for it 3.. 2.. 1.. and i’m off i get two steps into the main road and that’s when i hear his voice THERE, LOOK when i turn my head im met with a sight that is engraved into my memory jellyboy and dr corn in the back, kelgen and trees infront of them, horsemeat and cowman next up, and in the front is crack jesus they are in a pyramid formation, all pointing at me they are running after me screaming war cries and for a moment i felt as though i was a cowboy on the american frontier, being chased down by indians that are beyond pissed off that i just stole their native land i’m paralyzed in fear i decide it’s time to come up with a plan, a plan which requires me to think, something i was not much good at i realize i can kick in wizard mode wizard mode is malfunctioning and my brain is still as dysfunctional as it was 4 seconds ago fuck, they’re getting closer just as i’m about to give up and accept my fate i realize something im wearing my brooks running shoes it was as though i was blessed by u/joeeposts the shoe salesman and just like that i was running faster than i’ve ever run before the predators notice that i’m wearing brooks running shoes and now they realize their mistake i will outrun them they split up, some going to the buildings on the left side, some the right, and now the only person left on the main road was mr crack he was still screaming war cries now that i’ve been blessed by my brooks running shoes and the holy words of u/joeeposts the shoe salesman i decide i am not afraid of mr crack i embrace his advances (in a cool way not sexually) i run toward him as well, reciprocating his war cries we get up to eachother and i put a foot forward on the left, mr crack tries matching my movements to catch me, just as i planned in an instant i withdrawal my foot advancement and use the momentum to spin my body around mr cracks outreached hand, metaphorically destroying his ankles mr crack falls to the ground a small price to pay for salvation dr corn and jellyboy were witness to this magic event and now they’re coming at me from either side the power of the brooks running shoes is still coursing through every vein in my body and i decide to turn around and run back toward mr crack, who is still on the ground, probably wishing he was wearing brooks running shoes i get to him and leap over his outstretched body, the minute i hit the ground i pivot my right foot and just like that i’m full sprinting down the alley i see the ladder i was on previously, dumpster still conveniently under it i get to the top of the ladder and just as i get to the matinence balcony i see horsemeat i hold my breath he looks left he looks right and then his eyes met mine, he was ready “OVER HERE, HES ON THE BALCONY” my time was nearing before i knew it i was above all of them, they’re all looking up at me and for a moment i feel like i’m Glenn from the walking dead RICK GRIMES PLEASE COME SAVE ME i yell aloud, which had them in a fit of laughter which bought me just enough time mr crack was climbing the ladder rapidly and just as i was about to accept my fate beep beep beep beep beep the timer went off the fucking timer, i had forgotten all about it the looks on their faces were all the same defeat i had won i was the victor the story ends with all of us sitting around the lake, laughing, joking around, talking about life as our acid trips were coming to an end and mr crack ends things off with words that stuck with me for a long time “kid, you’ve got two things in life. your health, and your peace of mind. eat healthy, excercise, live your life, and most importantly, never forget how to have fun.” this one doesn’t end with a funny closer, just want to take the moment to tell you all to be good to one another. life is short, no reason to diminish someone’s peace of mind, live and let live. tl:dr - took acid, friend had a skating accident, met a homeless crackhead, made friends with him, played the ultimate game of hide and seek tag, learned a valuable life lesson
Weeklies vs 30-45 DTE vs LEAPs - or how to pimp out your theta
Hoy! As per the thetagang philosophy, the plan is to sell options and see them loose value over time due to theta decay. There are plenty of other reasons to do it, but the core idea behind the theta play is to let time work for your advantage. I'll give a rundown of three approaches, and let you make your own conclusions on what strategy best fits you.
Weeklies: selling options expiring within a week, (0-7DTE [Days To Expiry])
30-45 DTE: popularized by tastytrade, selling options that expire 1-1.5 month out
LEAPs: 1 year or longer to expiry;
Let's benchmark.. I'll compare the following 3 setups here:
6DTE (weekly), Feb 12 expiry
41DTE, March 19 expiry
349 DTE, Jan 21, 2022 expiry
And look at 4 (very) different tickers: SPY (high volume, low thrills index fund), AAPL (solid tech company & growth potential), KO (solid non-tech, low thrills) and GME (the meme du jour). I will use the 41DTE, ~0.30 delta as our reference for annualized income, where annualized return percentage (ARP) is given by ARP = 365 * premium / (collateral at stake) / DTE * 100%. EDIT: As pointed out by buzzante, this doesn't take into account compounding interest. The quick premium you get on a shorter DTE can then be repeatedly reinvested, favoring shorter DTEs. On the flip side, selling longer dated DTE gives you more upfront premium that you could already reinvest. I think overall compounding benefits longer DTEs for the same percentage returns (like getting paid upfront for one year vs getting paid in weekly installments), but for sake of simplicity and my sanity, I won't redo the math. The idea is, if you can get X% annualized return on a 41DTE option, how would an X% annualized return (in terms of greeks & strike prices) look like for a 6DTE and 349 DTE option. To keep things simple, I will only look at CSPs (cash secured puts), no calls, margin plays, hedges, etc, and use the mid of the Ask/Bid spread as our premium price, as quoted on Friday's (Feb 5) close. SPY (price at close 387.71$) 41DTE: 375$ strike, 5.87$ premium, ARP = 13.59%, delta ~0.3, gamma 0.012, IV 22%, OpenInt 37920 So I am looking for a similar ARP for 6DTE and 349DTE options. [..find a premium/(collateral at stake) ratio = ARP * DTE / 365 / 100..]
DTE
Strike
Premium
ARP
Delta
Gamma
IV
OpenInt
41
375$
5.87$
13.59%
~0.3
0.012
22%
37920
6
380$
0.81$
12.96%
~0.18
0.030
15%
15550
6
381$
0.925$
14.76%
~0.20
0.034
15%
4593
349
430$
56.895$
13.83%
~0.65
0.005
34%
<100
AAPL (price at close 136.76$)
DTE
Strike
Premium
ARP
Delta
Gamma
IV
OpenInt
41
130$
3.60$
24.65%
~0.3
0.007
33%
<100
6
132$
0.425$
19.59%
~0.16
0.048
26%
3280
6
133$
0.595$
26.99%
~0.21
0.059
26%
4200
349
165$
38.20$
24.21%
~0.61
0.007
39%
<300
KO (price at close 49.65$)
DTE
Strike
Premium
ARP
Delta
Gamma
IV
OpenInt
41
47.5$
0.93$
17.43%
~0.3
0.076
27%
8193
6
46.0$
0.085$
11.24%
~0.07
0.052
39%
2659
6
46.5$
0.11$
19.59%
~0.09
0.066
36%
1130
349
55$
8.80$
16.73%
~0.61
0.029
26%
3894
GME (price at close 63.77$)
DTE
Strike
Premium
ARP
Delta
Gamma
IV
OpenInt
41
65$
27.15$
371.84%
~0.296
0.005
326%
600
6
24$
3.125$
372.60%
~0.034
0.001
470%
734
349DTE: NOT POSSIBLE! For a 370% return, you'd need the premium to be more than 3x the strike; How to interpret this 1) Selling LEAPs are is a pretty bad deal (in terms of annualized interest). For a comparative return with 41DTE, your strike price is going to be higher than the current stock price. As in, the stock price needs to swing up for the option to expire worthless, as opposed to NOT drop too much which lower DTE. 2) The higher the DTE, the worse the liquidity (bigger spreads, lower open interest, etc). Makes it that much harder to get a good deal. 3) Look at the 6DTE vs 41DTE strike prices (for the same annualized returns): they aren't that much different (except GME.. more about that later). So adjusted for risk, shorter DTE puts are more likely to expire OTM. Or just look at the deltas.. very compelling. 4) The GME conundrum: if you're gonna scalp the IV, go for where it's the highest; what's more likely, GME finishing below 21$ in 6 days, or below 38$ in 41 days? (the two break-even points). You could even pick a 6DTE with strike 14$ for a 'meager' 77.6% ARP (that beats selling puts on AAPL or KO). 5) We are safe to conclude that I don't have a life; and if you got this far, neither do you ;) EDIT: Risks, risks, risks Seasoned folks are smart to point out that I didn't get into all the risks shorter DTEs pose. It wouldn't be fair to ignore it, so here's a rundown on what might go wrong:
pin risk: it's tempting to let weeklies expire worthless, but after hours price movements after expiration can suddenly turn against you; while this could be avoided if you always close your positions, there's some extra value to be had by trying to see at least some of them expire worthless;
early assignment: the closer you are to expiration, the more likely it is that this would/could happen with a sudden and violent breach of your strike price; as you are going to have significantly more trades with lower DTEs, this adds some extra risk to the mix that can't be quantified with backtestings;
gamma risk: this is the biggest one; this deserves its own post, but here's a solid writeup with pretty charts that does a better job than I ever could; in short, when selling options, you're negatively exposed to gamma; the closer the option to expiration, the higher the gamma, the more the value of the option fluctuates with the underlying stock's movement; a 30 delta 45DTE option will have lower gamma than a 30 delta 7DTE option; I updated my numbers to also include gamma - but I think most people would agree that for the same ARP and underlying stock but different DTEs, a lower delta + lower gamma combo is a better risk-adjusted bet (see GME 41DTE vs 6DTE or KO 41DTE vs 6DTE delta & gamma numbers); in most other cases, shorter DTE plays (for the same normalized ARP) would lower your delta but increase your gamma; it's a trade-off everyone needs to decide for themselves
IV risk/gains: the shorter the DTE, the bigger impact IV movements have on gamma (see this for pretty charts); with IV dropping, your OTM options can experience a gamma boost, that can slap you in the face; this is somewhat compensated though by premium lowering on average due to the IV drop; but if the stock price moved against you, it becomes that much harder to roll out /manage your losses;
EDIT: Back-testing, always The common wisdom is that 45DTE 16-20 delta have been the clear winner in back-testing and has a better risk-adjusted win-rate than any other configuration. Check spintwig and tasty trade video where this the most common conclusion made. However, there is no size fits all; 45DTE 16-20 is NOT optimal theta play on meme stocks or for earnings plays (in both cases IV will predictably drop), or growth stocks (where buy&hold beats CSP in benchmarks). The only way to settle true winrates is by back-testing, but once accounting for active management, early closing, margin management, etc. even back-testing is just a rough estimation. I feel it would be irresponsible of me NOT to emphasize the overwhelming amount of evidence/benchmarks in favor of 45DTE 16-20 delta plays - but it's also not an optimal play for every situation, and this shouldn't be a controversial statement :/. Conclusions If it's theta you're after, shorter DTEs have higher returns. Not necessarily higher risk (EDIT: yes, likely higher risks, see the part on risks, risks, risks) mind you - if you pick your deltas (EDIT: and gammas) carefully. Makes sense, theta works best closest to expiration; a lot can happen in one year to a stock (hit record highs or go bankrupt), much less in one day. EDIT: There's this post with pretty graphs that sum it up better than I could. Shorter DTEs also require more management and more involvement. Reevaluating your holdings every day (if you're selling weeklies) vs every week (with 30-45DTE) can be demanding, especially with a diversified portfolio. And finally, you do you. I think the 30-45DTE philosophy is quite popular with this sub (and selling early when hitting 50% return), but the gains aren't really from theta in those cases (well, a mix of delta and theta), but rather stonks going up. It's a solid, easy strategy, but leaves quite a lot of value on the table. (EDIT: or does it.. back-testing results debate this. It's irresponsible of me to make such a categorical statement). Agree or disagree, we should probably talk about this. I flaired it as DD, but it's more of a meta-analysis of theta strategy as a whole. EDIT2: tables everywhere..
Preface: Please believe me when I say I really wanted to take this month off and enjoy the snow in Tahoe. But as I was driving, something caught my eye... Make no mistake. This stock is not going to be nearly as volatile or profitable as GME. In fact, this might be so boring that most of you will ignore me yet again. And that’s exactly why I like it. I’ll do my best to make this engaging, but the fact is, this is going to be a slow grind. Both this DD and the stock. Also, as a bonus, Reddit is currently public enemy #1 in the eyes of the media. Why don’t we do a quick heel-turn and join their side? Are they gonna hate us for buying boring value stocks? They won’t know what hit them. That will be a fun show to watch. Anyway… let’s take a look under the hood. As always, not financial advice. Just education. NOTHING IS A RECOMMENDATION. We are just sharing knowledge here. Ok SEC? Intro: Ford (NYSE: $F -- NOT NASDAQ:$FORD), is another depressed deep value multiple expansion arbitrage play. No short squeeze this time. The GME asymmetry may not be seen again for 10 years. It might seem boring and unsexy on the surface, but Ford is a fantastic company in the midst of one of the best turnarounds in American history. And with a little help from our friend Mr. Options (or as Buffett called, Financial Weapons of Mass Destruction) we can turn a boring old Ford into a lightning fast Ferrari using the quadruple income option wheel strategy. Don’t try this at home. If you don’t know what CSPs, CCs, or vega are, stick to shares. Those should work just fine. Let’s break this down into 5 parts: electrification story and leadership, multiples expansion, technical analysis, options, and the trade. By the way, in 2019, the Ford F-Series was second only to the Apple iPhone, which raked in $55 billion, in terms of total revenue generated. The F-Series generated more revenue than the NFL, MLB, NBA, and the NHL combined, which added up to $40 billion. Just something to think about.
The wheels on the bus go round and round, round and round...
Electrification story and leadership: Let’s jump into history for a second. Ford had a meteoric rise from 1997 - 1999 from $15 to around $32 at the peak. This was due to $F reporting massive earnings increases each quarter:
They were just feasting and feasting. Jim Farley looks like the best person alive to revitalize Ford, capable of tripling the stock in 2-3 years. Look at the last two quarters:
Q3-2020 - Adjusted EPS: 65 cents vs 19 cents expected, Automotive revenue: $34.71 billion vs $33.51 billion expected (due to pent up demand)
Q2-2020 - Adjusted EPS: A loss of 35 cents per share versus a loss of $1.17 per share expected, Automotive revenue: $16.6 billion versus $15.95 billion expected.
Here are excerpts from the Q3 earnings and some other notable highlights:
Farley: Now that plan, which was introduced to the Ford team and many stakeholders on October 1, is very straightforward. Among other things, No. 1, we will compete like a challenger, earning each customer with great products but as well services with rewarding ownership experiences. Number two, we're moving with urgency to turn around our automotive operations, improve our quality, reduce our cost and accelerate the restructuring of underperforming businesses. And third, we're going to grow again but in the right areas, allocating more capital, more resources, more talent to our very strongest businesses and vehicle franchises; incubating, scaling and integrating new businesses, some of them enabled by new technology like Argo's world-class self-driving system; and expanding our leading commercial vehicle business with great margins but now with the suite of software services that drive loyalty and generate reoccurring annuity-like revenue streams; and being a leader in electric vehicle revolution around the world where we have strength and scale. So now speaking about EVs. To start with, we're developing all-new electric versions of the F-150 and the Transit, the two most important, highest-volume commercial vehicles in our industry. These leading vehicles really drive the commercial vehicle business at Ford, and we're electrifying them.
Quick sidebar here from my buddy M: "Whereas traditional manufact / consumer / industrials are valued on an EBITDA multiple, SAAS has historically been valued on a revenue multiple, which translates to flat out higher valuations. EVs themselves are not necessarily a higher margin product that justifies a higher multiple (at least not that I've seen), but tech services / subscriptions are the real money makers in this game. Hint Hint companies like Apple throwing everything they have at trying to integrate services and subscriptions over the last 5 years" This further justifies the expansion multiples we expect will catch up to leading EV automakers (see below).
We own work at Ford. And these electric vehicles will be true work vehicles, extremely capable and with unique digital services and over-the-air capabilities to improve the productivity and uptime of our important commercial customers. The electric Transit, by the way, will be revealed next month, and you heard about it here first, for all of our global markets. We believe the addressable market for a fully electric commercial van and pickup, the two largest addressable profit pools in commercial, are going to be massive. Now you're going to see our strategy of electrifying our leading commercial vehicles and our iconic high-volume products expand very quickly at Ford. When you look at our results, they reflect the benefit of our decision two years ago to allocate capital to our strongest franchise, namely: pickups, a whole range of utilities across the world, commercial vehicles and iconic passenger vehicles. Additionally, we saw higher-than-expected demand for our new vehicles in the quarter. Together, these factors, plus the strongest performance from Ford Credit in 15 years, led to a total company adjusted EBIT margin of 9.7%. That's 490 basis points higher than last year. As an outcome of all this, we generated $6.3 billion in adjusted free cash flow. The strong cash flow in the quarter gave us the confidence and the ability to make a second payment on our corporate revolver, which we did on September 24. So now we have fully repaid the entire $15 billion facility, and we ended the third quarter with a strong balance sheet, including nearly $30 billion in cash and more than $45 billion of liquidity, which provides us with the vital financial flexibility we need.
Check out this credit downgrade weeks before Ford paid off their revolving credit facility. Smells like GME? Alright. What about Q4-2020 and beyond? Ford is expected to post a loss. TA is signaling a beat (see the TA section). Ford is spending this money in order further restructure and deliver on the following items in their pipeline: Bronco:
Within the first month of open reservations, the Bronco had received an estimated 230,000 reservations. 230,000 reservations is an incredibly impressive figure, especially when put into the context of Ford’s total vehicle sales. 230,000 sales would represent 4% of Ford’s total sales.
Some other nice features: Fold down the shifter, lay seats down completely flat, speakers in headrest, tailgate worksurface (pen/pencil holders, rulers) C clamp, 120V outlet, bottle opener, light), sensing running board, tailgate step and railing, and more. Watch the video.
Ford Raptor launch (just happened today, customers are excited. Look at the comments on YouTube and IG) Further potential tailwinds:
The Postal Service told Trucks.com that it expects to reach a contract with one or more of the teams bidding for the business in the federal government’s second fiscal quarter of 2021. That works out to the first quarter of next year.
There is a historical inverse relationship between gas prices and car sizing. Tell me if I'm reaching here. But as America continues to head towards electrification and energy independence under Biden, larger gas cars will be more in demand. Furthermore, the aftershock of COVID will continue to propagate the dedensification of cities. Less commuter vehicles, and more travel vehicles. And look who is conveniently positioned to take advantage of all of this?
Dr. Anning Chen is also a killer CEO of Ford China. This is largely intangibles (which Wall Street cannot model), but watch his interviews here and here.
Dr. Chen used the COVID shutdown to improve the operational efficiency of the company. It has not shown on the bottom line thus far, but it will later.
Regarding the above leadership and BOD members, experienced executives are a better fit for running the day-to-day than any other. Add a sprinkle of savvy techfin folk and you have a recipe for a elite transition.
English please? Ford is a strong company. Farley is delivering on his promises and can lead the company towards an operationally efficient turnaround towards electrification. Combine this with a loyal customer base rivaled only by AAPL, and you get another special opportunity. This is the turning point. Multiples Expansion: Now here lies the crux of the thesis. Amidst all the EV hype, Ford is being unfairly ignored at an extremely depressed multiple compared to the other companies in the EV space. Here are some comparisons (numbers may be slightly outdated, pulled earlier this week, more relative comparison than absolute): $Ticker - Market Cap - TTM Revenue MM - TTM EBITDA MM - Revenue Multiple - Ebitda Multiple TSLA - $810B - $28B - $4B - 29X - 202X NIO - $92B - $12B - ($7B) - 7.6X - (NaN) GM - $78B - $116B - $18B - 0.7X - 4.3X F - $44B - $131B - $10B - 0.3X - 4.4X That’s an eyesore. Let’s focus on just TSLA and Ford, because why not. Assuming Ford can quickly turn towards electrification (from the evidence above), these two companies are fair comparisons. No Tesla is not a software/energy company, look at their automotive % of revenue. Stop it. It has only recently dropped to 80% due to the expansion of their leasing division. Energy is still a tiny part of TSLA. Revenue Multiple: TSLA = 29X F = 0.3X EBITDA Multiple: TSLA = 202X F = 4.4X Yes those numbers are correct. Look at them for 60 seconds and tell me what you see. Quick quote from my buddy M:
Just zoom out and think. TSLA is for sure ahead of the rest on their tech and charging infra right now. But in terms of just overall bottom line infrastructure and manufacturing capability; once the GMs, Fs, and VWs of the world can get the ball rolling, they are way ahead in that aspect. Much more experience in production and retail / distribution channels, as well as logistics sourcing. Plenty of battery makers, and self driving tech makers out there too right now. Small to mid scale M&A will probably be the name of the game if I had to guess.
This is why Burry is short $TSLA, but two scenarios can unfold: either the high-flying stocks drop, or Ford rises. I believe we will land somewhere in the middle, with Ford rising as we begin to enter the optimism phase in the final third of our bull market. Shorting is a dangerous game anyway... So I’ve been hearing on the news... TA, Options: Exhibit A from our resident chart whisperer J (who will remain unnamed because you monkeys keep bothering him). Larger view. As you can see, the trendline has broken out. Exhibit B from our resident quant T (also to rename unnamed):
Starting on 1/4 you'll find right tail distributions into any liquidation which represent large buying. Which has led up to a recent run-up and eventually left tail distributions which represent short coverings which lead into the gaps and thinner distributions where there aren't any major bids. Even with the pullback on 1/22 we see more right tail distribution after the profit taking from the recent run-up, which means someone is buying up the inventory. This is unusual for F, where F trades within tight ranges. On 2/1 you can see a bimodal distribution which means a new player has stepped in, which we assume has additional knowledge apart from the larger players that were already in the market. The recent range between 10.70 and 11.20 indicates that the market has accepted this price range as fair value. Without additional research at first glance we can see that a large player (or players) is buying up a significant amount of inventory. On 1/4 we find that the volume increased to 77,559,128 from the previous trading of 34,462,454 (125% increase) and 33,127,776 the day before that. Volume has been higher since. On our first major left tail distribution (which represents short covering) since the buying on 1/4 the volume was at 113,707,973.
Exhibit C 250k shares of F 10.92; 100k F 11.04; 3.53m F 9.78; 708k F 9.78; 500k F 9.64; 377k F 9.50; 338k F 9.50; 201k F 9.75; 192k F 9.80; 150k F 9.77 These are blocks of shares bought in the past 7 days Top OI changes: +19610 F 02/05/21 11 C 43821 38% 13% 48% +12904 F 02/05/21 12 C 31929 38% 11% 52% Top OI positions: 170902 F 02/19/21 10 C +807 26% 49% 25% 112480 F 02/19/21 12 C +3207 29% 29% 41% The percentages are bid mid ask. Someone is bullish on Ford. For an earnings play, daily RSI is oversold looking towards an uptick. Options gamma is interesting to note as well. Open interest on 2/5 $13 and $15Cs are also notable. Could be covered calls? Could be someone knows something? Could be Jeff reading too much into the tea leaves. Not financial advice. Just showing you what I see. The Trade: The simplest way is just to purchase shares and collect dividends as Ford may reinstate them sometime in 2021. Possibly leaps if you feel adventurous. For the option junkies like myself, and as a tribute to the greatest company in American history, I will use the wheel(s). The GME trade was a very special and momentous occasion. Now that we have a bankroll, we’ll just quietly play theta gang as we enjoy our lives and spend time with our families and loved ones. Here’s a good summary. This is not for amateurs. I mean, none of this is financial advice anyway, just educational. But in a nutshell, I will: 1) Buy shares, 2) Sell CSPs 30-45 days out with 0.3 delta, 3) sell CCs with 0.3 delta (will reconsider this if Ford goes vertical) 4) Collect dividends. The Wheel doesn’t work on everything. Here are the qualifications from the above post, let me know if this sounds familiar:
Profitable company that has solid cash flow
Bullish, or Very Bullish, analyst ratings
Priced around $10 to $50 so that I can afford to take the assignment if needed and I stay away from sub-$10 stocks as a rule
A stable chart without wild gyrations (especially those caused by CEO tweets!)
A nice dividend is always a good thing, both that you may collect it if assigned the stock but also that dividend stocks tend to more stable and predictable.
Hmm... Conclusion: Ford is a massive, complex, multinational corporation so I’ve likely missed very many things, but I wanted to get this out before ER so I can flex again. (No market manipulation here lol. My buddy's multi-million dollar block buys didn't move the needle one iota.) There are many things I haven’t covered, and simply don’t know yet. As more facts begin to unfold, and as I spend more time with the stock, I’ll share the information here. Also, every time I post about an equity, it seems to go down. Lol... (GME). With all this in mind, this is still a very risky bet. Nevertheless, I like what I’ve seen thus far. Ford looks like a fantastically healthy company in the midst of a turnaround towards electrification with a phenomenally depressed multiple according to the market’s appetite. It deserves a multiple trending towards TSLA’s, not a dying auto manufacturer. Jim Farley has shown early to be a great CEO and I think he can continue the transformation. We’ve begun to enter a phase of exuberance, so I’ll choose to long Ford instead of short TSLA. As a bonus, we have the opportunity to join forces with the boomers and talking heads and bet on one of their favorite companies. Time for America to be on the same side again. We’ve been divided for too long. I know my GME posts were lucky. I’ll stake my reputation on another bet. One call sure is lucky. What about two? In any case, investing is a marathon, not a sprint. Glad to be a part of this journey with you all. Note: I will not discuss GME in the comments, which all depends on Ryan Cohen. There is nothing further to add until Q4 earnings. And finally, we’ve officially entered the last phase of our very long bull market. This is not necessarily a sell signal yet, as some of the greatest returns can come in this period and can last for a long time. I will do my best to look for the signal and sound the alarm. The world will be celebrating, and I will be bearish. Burry’s passive indexing bubble call in combination with Thiel’s government debt bubble call will lead us into a dark time of unprecedented proportions. Tail risk hedging won’t work as the declines will be slow at first, and then fast and violent and unrecoverable. Be careful. Listen to Ken Fisher. Thank you very much for your time. Positions: Bullish shares, LEAPS, on-going quadruple income wheel strategy as Ford reinstates the dividend. Timeframe 12-18 months. Watch out VIGILANTLY for macro risks. Bear market is on the horizon. Drop some Fs in the chat to pay respects. PT: $32 with a chance of $98 if we start to see exuberance in the broader market. -JA
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